Macro Briefing | 23 October 2019

Top US envoy to Ukraine testifies that Trump tied aid to Biden probe: Politico
Johnson’s Brexit plans in “limbo” after vote in Parliament: BBC
China reportedly planning to replace Hong Kong leader by March: CNBC
China avoids rate cuts, in contrast with other major central banks: CNBC
Third upbeat Fed bank survey for mfg in Oct suggests sector is stabilizing: RichFed
US home sales fell in Sep to the slowest pace in three months: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing | 22 October 2019

Rising business challenges weigh on low-rated US companies: WSJ
Facing obstacles, UK’s Johnson focuses on final push for Oct. 31 Brexit: BBC
Election results show Canada’s Justin Trudeau will serve 2nd term as PM: CNN
Negative rates have unintended consequences, says JP Morgan’s Dimon: CNBC
More than half of banks won’t survive next crisis, McKinsey & Co predicts: BBG
In a surprising turn, protests rattle investor expectations for Chile: Reuters
Eurozone banks eased lending standards in Q3: Reuters
10yr-2yr Treasury yield curve rises to +18 basis points, a 3-month high:

Macro Briefing | 21 October 2019

IMF predicts China’s economy will continue to slow in 2020: CNBC
Weak exports for Japan and S. Korea highlight global slowdown: Bloomberg
Johnson plans to bring his Brexit deal to a new vote in Parliament: WSJ
Japan’s top central banker outlines new plan to stimulate economy: Reuters
US Leading Economic Index reaffirms slow-growth outlook for US: MW
Is re-steepened US yield curve a bullish sign for economy? Maybe not: Nordea
Latest rally in US stock market leaves S&P 500 drawdown virtually nil at 1%:

Book Bits | 19 October 2019

How Charts Lie: Getting Smarter about Visual Information
By Alberto Cairo
Review via The Economist
His book could not be more timely. Charts and maps pepper traditional and social media more than ever, but there have been few attempts to improve what Mr Cairo calls the “graphicacy” of their consumers. His corrective begins with a chapter on how to read a chart, and this basic notion—that, to be understood, graphs must be read, not merely glanced at—permeates the book. He outlines the essential “scaffolding” of a chart (scales, legend, source and so on), before describing the many ways that data can be built upon it. Only once readers know what a solid structure looks like can they learn to spot a façade.
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Research Review | 18 October 2019 | Portfolio Design And Analysis

Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Baruch Lev (NY University) and Anup Srivastava (U. of Calgary)
August 25, 2019
The business press claims that the long-standing and highly popular value investing strategy—investing in low-valued stocks and selling short high-valued equities—lost its edge since 2007. The reasons for this putative sudden demise of value investing elude investors and academics, making it a challenge to assess the likelihood of the return of value investing to its days of glory. Based on extensive data analysis we show that the strategy has, in fact, been unprofitable for almost 30 years, barring a brief resurrection following dotcom bust. We identify two major reasons for the demise of value: (1) accounting deficiencies causing systematic misidentification of value, and particularly of glamour (growth) stocks, and (2) fundamental economic developments which slowed down significantly the reshuffling of value and glamour stocks which drove the erstwhile gains from the value strategy. We end up by speculating on the likelihood of the resurgence of value investing, which seems low.

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Macro Briefing | 18 October 2019

Turkey agrees to temporarily halt military operations in Syria: WSJ
UK Parliament expected to reject Johnson’s new Brexit deal on Saturday: CNBC
China’s Q3 annual economic growth slows to 6.0%–lowest in decades: CNBC
A variety of financial risks from climate change are lurking: SF Fed
Housing starts in the US fell in September after reaching 12-year high: MW
US jobless claims continue to predict labor market expansion: CNBC
Philly Fed’s mfg index shows modest growth for October: Philly Fed
US industrial output’s 1-year trend was negative in Sep–first decline since 2016: