The tenth anniversary this past September of the collapse of Lehman Brothers inspired a blizzard of commentary, including some deeply misguided observations. One misunderstanding is that Lehman’s demise caused the Great Recession. In fact, the downturn started months earlier in the US, as NBER’s recession dates show. But there’s room for debate on the question of whether the government’s decision to let economic gravity have its way with Lehman turned what might have been a moderate downturn into the deepest contraction since the Great Depression.
Pelosi secures deal to be next Speaker of the House: Slate
Developments in Mueller probe whip up impeachment talk among Dems: Fox
UK prime minister survives leadership vote: CNBC
Britain’s weakened prime minister heads to Brussels for help: Reuters
IEA: US influence in global oil market set to rise: CNBC
Rising US-China tensions over South China Sea stocking fears of clash: SCMP
Criticism of indexing (still) falls flat: Barry Ritholtz
US consumer inflation (headline) slowed to 2.2% annual rate in Nov: MW
With less than three weeks before the last trading session of the year, equity markets in the Mideast appear set to deliver the strongest (and perhaps only) gain for 2018 among the world’s major regions, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
Trump says he’ll consider shutting gov’t over border wall: Bloomberg
CFO of China’s tech giant Huawei released on bail in Canada: CNN
China detains former Canadian diplomat: SCMP
Trump says Fed rate hike ‘would be foolish’: Reuters
Vanguard founder Bogle: buy bonds to hedge ‘unstable’ US gov’t and Brexit: FN
Global equity valuations at 5-year lows: WSJ
UK Prime Minister Theresa May faces no-confidence vote today: WSJ
Protests in France threaten to undermine Macron’s economic reforms: NY Times
US small business optimism remains high but outlook turns cautious: CNBC
The implied inflation outlook via Treasury yield spreads in recent months has been pricing in a possibility that inflation has peaked. The forecast is debatable, but right or wrong the government bond market is doubling down on that bet.
Impeachment risk is rising for Trump: Bloomberg
US and China start new round of trade talks: WSJ
White House plans to roll back clean water rules: Axios
Trump administration promotes fossil fuels at climate change meeting: Time
UK’s May heads to Europe to salvage her crumbling Brexit deal: Guardian
Macron offers to raise minimum wages after French protests: BBC
US sanctions North Korean officials amid stalled nuclear talks: ABC
Former Fed Chair Yellen is worried about excessive corporate debt: CNBC
US job openings rebounded in Oct, near record high: CNBC
US and foreign stock markets fell sharply last week as broadly defined commodities and bonds gained ground, according to a set of exchange-traded products representing the major asset classes. Growing concern over several economic and political risk factors have been weighing on stocks and the week ahead appears set to start with a new round of volatility.
China summons US envoy over Huawei CFO’s arrest in Canada: Bloomberg
Europe’s top court rules UK can unilaterally halt Brexit process: CNN
Wall Street banks pore over data in search of business-cycle clues: Bloomberg
UK Prime Minister May must decide today on putting Brexit deal to a vote: Time
Familiar risks await US economy in 2019: NY Times
Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 dipped to slowest pace in four years: RTE
US hiring slowed in Nov; wage growth at highest rate in nearly a decade: WSJ
Consumer debt posted biggest gain in 11 months in Oct: Bloomberg
Wholesale trade sales in US up 6.8% for year through Oct: MDM
US Consumer Sentiment Index unchanged at elevated level in Dec: MW
The pace of hiring at companies slowed in November, according to this morning’s monthly update from the Labor Department. The softer-than-projected gain pared the year-over-year trend to a three month low. The economy’s still creating a healthy number of jobs, but today’s results reaffirm the view that US growth has peaked.