US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 October 2018

The US economic trend remains solidly positive, but signs of slowing growth persist. For now, the risk of recession remains virtually nil and it’s unlikely that a downturn will start in the immediate future, according to broad set of indicators. But projections for next year, which remain highly speculative at this point, suggest that recession risk will rise – a forecast that deserves close attention as new data arrives in the weeks ahead.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 19 October 2018

US hardens line on Saudi Arabia as evidence mounts in Khashoggi case: CNN
EU offers UK few options on Brexit deal: Reuters
Trump threatens to close southern US border as migrants approach: NPR
China’s economic growth slows to softest pace in a decade: NY Times
Leading Economic Index for the US signals strong growth for 2019: CNBC
Philly Fed Mfg Index points to strong growth for October: MarketWatch
US jobless claims fell last week, near 50-year low: MarketWatch

Major Asset Classes | Correlations Profile | 18 October 2018

Return correlations for the major asset classes continue to trend higher this year, based on the median of pairwise relationships for rolling one-year periods via a set of exchange-traded products. The median correlation is still well below levels reached in 2017, but the upward bias of late implies that finding diversification benefits through a multi-asset class portfolio will face stronger headwinds on the margins in the near term.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 18 October 2018

US spy agencies see link of Saudi prince to Khashoggi’s disappearance: NY Times
Trump reluctant to abandon Riyadh over missing journalist: Reuters
Khashoggi crisis widens rift for Trump and Congress on Saudi Arabia: Bloomberg
UK looking for extension on transitioning out of EU: BBC
US Treasury declines to label China a currency manipulator in report: Bloomberg
Billionaire hedge fund manager Cooperman: bonds, not stocks, in bubble: CNBC
FOMC minutes: Fed still leaning toward more rate hikes: CNBC
US housing starts fell more than expected in September: Reuters

Macro Briefing: 17 October 2018

Suspects in Khashoggi case are linked to Saudi Crown Prince: NY Times
High-ranking Saudi officer reportedly oversaw Khashoggi interrogation: CNN
After Saudi talks on Khashoggi, Pompeo meets with Turkey’s Erdogan: Reuters
IMF’s chief postpones trip to the Middle East, including Saudi event: CNBC
Trump to Central America: he’ll withhold funds over immigrant ‘caravan’: The Hill
China defends locking up Muslim minority in Xinjiang region: BBC
US industrial output rose for fourth straight month in September: MarketWatch
Homebuilder sentiment in US strengthened in October: HousingWire
US job openings jumped to 7.14mm in Aug, a record high for the series: Reuters

Macro Briefing: 16 October 2018

Budget deficit for US surged to six-year high of $779 billion in fiscal 2018: AP
Saudis reportedly plan to admit that Khashoggi died during interrogation: CNN
US retail sales edged up 0.1% in Sep, well below economists’ expectations: CNBC
Fidelity launches cryptocurrency trading desk for institutions: CNBC
Inflation in China accelerated for fourth straight month in Sep: Bloomberg
ECRI: US housing market at risk of cycle downturn: Bloomberg
NY Fed Mfg Index edges higher, pointing to ongoing strength in sector: MW
Business inventories in US up sharply in August: MW
Gold rises to 2-1/2 month high: $1230 an ounce:

Macro Briefing: 15 October 2018

IEA: “expensive energy… poses a threat to economic growth”: CNBC
Saudi Arabia vows to retaliate over any sanctions re: Khashoggi case: Reuters
Brexit talks falter over Northern Ireland border: BBC
Bavaria’s election threatens German Chancellor’s ‘grand coalition’: LA Times
Import prices for US rise more than forecast due to rebound in energy: CNBC
Sears files for bankruptcy: CNN
China’s Shanghai Composite Index falls to 4-year low: Bloomberg
US Consumer Sentiment Index slipped in early Oct, but still elevated: MW
Is softer US bank lending a warning sign for the economy? NY Times