Book Bits: 24 July 2021

The Great Adaptation: Climate, Capitalism and Catastrophe
Romain Felli
Summary via publisher (Verso Books)
The Great Adaptation tells the story of how scientists, governments and corporations have tried to deal with the challenge that climate change poses to capitalism by promoting adaptation to its consequences, rather than combating its causes. Since the 1970s, neoliberal economists and ideologues have used climate change as an argument for creating more “flexibility” in society, for promoting more market-based solutions to environmental and social questions. This book unveils the political economy of this potent movement, showing how some powerful actors are thriving in the face of dangerous climate change and even making a profit out of it.

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Modeling US Stock Market Expected Returns, Part II

Earlier this month I outlined a model for estimating the US stock market’s return in the decade ahead. The post is part of a larger goal is to develop several models and use the average as more reliable forecast, based on the empirical evidence that combining models tends to generate superior results vs. any one model. In addition, the focus on equities is the counterpart to a previous series on estimating “fair value” for the 10-year Treasury yield.

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Macro Briefing: 21 July 2021

* World in ‘early stages’ of another Covid-19 wave, says WHO chief
* US life expectancy fell 1.5 years in 2020, biggest drop since WWII
* US economy facing stronger headwinds, including “whiff of stagflation”
* US set to drop opposition to Germany-Russia Nord Stream 2 pipeline
* Monthslong slide in bond yields challenges focus on inflation worries
* Senate leader struggles to keep infrastructure spending bill alive
* Covid slowing recovery for many Southeast Asian economies, says analyst
* US housing starts rose more than expected in June but permits fell again:

Macro Briefing: 20 July 2021

* Biden pushes for more government spending to support the economy
* 90%-plus of people hospitalized with Covid-19 are unvaccinated
* US stock market decline leaves S&P 500 near one-month low at Monday’s close
* Markets appear to be moving beyond inflation worries to concerns about growth
* Spread of Delta variant raises possibility of US 10-year yield falling to 1%
* Can Ireland block global effort to overhaul global tax rules?
* Rising dollar makes emerging markets investors nervous
* NBER declares US covid recession lasted only two months, ended in April 2020
* US 10-year yield continues to sink, falling to 1.19% on Monday: