The risk of trade war with China may be lurking, but for now the US macro trend remains healthy. A broad set of indicators continue to reflect low recession risk and a revised forecast for the business cycle suggests more of the same through next month.
White House split over response for trade policy for China: Bloomberg
Supreme Court: states can force online retails to collect taxes: CNN
Opec’s deal to boost oil output remains in doubt: Reuters
European Union’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods begin today: BBC
Eurozone business activity regained some momentum in June: IHS Markit
US jobless claims dip for fourth week in a row: MarketWatch
Philly Fed Mfg Index downshifts to 19-month low in June: MarketWatch
Wealth for US millennials is 34% below levels v. earlier generations: Bloomberg
10yr-2yr Treasury spread ticks down to 34 basis points, a new post-recession low:
Stocks are expected to outperform bonds in the long run, but how much is too much over a medium-term horizon?
Trump signs order ending policy of separating migrant families: Politico
European Union set to roll out retaliatory tariffs on US exports: BBC
A strong economy gives US an edge in trade negotiations: NY Times
Senate rejects Trump’s plan to claw back spending approved by Congress: The Hill
Contentious OPEC meeting focuses on debate over lifting oil production: Reuters
US existing home sales dip for second month in May: HousingWire
Current account deficit for US widened to 2.5% of GDP in Q1: Reuters
Gold drops below $1275 an ounce — a new 2018 low: Kitco
The US stock market (S&P 500) continues to trade below its record high, which was set in January, but the bull market is arguably still running. Any number of threats could derail the trend, including a trade war that may be escalating between the US and China. But for the moment, there’s still room to argue that the upward bias in stocks, although battered of late, is intact.
US announces it will withdraw from UN Human Rights Council: CNN
White House insists US has edge over China in trade dispute: WSJ
GOP looks for ways to solve Trump’s border crisis: The Hill
NY to sue Trump administration over over family border separations: Reuters
Is US economic growth in Q2 peaking? Bloomberg
US Commerce Secretary shorted stock ahead of negative story: NY Times
Americans seeking disability benefits plunges as economy strengthens: NY Times
US housing starts rebounded in May to an 11-year high: MarketWatch
I’ve received several emails asking if my new R book — Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return — is available in the UK and Europe. In a word, yes (as well as ja, oui, and sí,), although please note that in all cases the text is still in English (or American, as the British would probably advise). In any case, here are the book’s Amazon links for readers in the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain:
And, of course, you can also find the book on the Amazon US site.
Estimates for US economic growth in the second quarter continue to project a strong rebound following Q1’s subdued gain. But the upbeat outlook may falter in the second half of the year if the White House’s tough talk on trade policy is implemented and China responds in kind.
Trump threatens another $200 bill in tariffs on Chinese imports: Bloomberg
China vows to retaliate over latest US threat of new tariffs: Reuters
N. Korea’s Kim Jon Un returns to China: NY Times
White House defends controversial child-separation policy at border: Reuters
UK prime minister facing new challenges in Brexit policy: Bloomberg
Senate votes to reimpose US ban on Chinese telecom giant ZTE: Politico
US homebuilder sentiment stumbled in June after lumber costs spike: CNBC
38% of Americans satisfied with US direction, a 12-year high: Gallup