Macro Briefing | 11 December 2019

House Democrats unveil two articles of impeachment against Trump: The Hill
Democrats announce new US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement: CNN
Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged in today’s policy meeting: Reuters
China expects US will delay Dec. 15 hike in tariffs: Bloomberg
US judge bars Trump from using military funds to build border wall: LA Times
Saudi Aramco shares — biggest IPO ever — surge on first day of trading: CNBC
US economic productivity declined in Q3 — first drop since 2015: MW
US small business optimism rose sharply in November: NFIB

Macro Briefing | 10 December 2019

House set to announce impeachment articles against Trump today: USA Today
White House and House eye deal on North American trade agreement: The Hill
No sign of US-China trade deal, but China buys more US-grown soybeans: CNBC
Will upcoming UK election offer a preview for Trump in 2020? BBC
UK economy stagnated in October: Bloomberg
Ukraine’s Zelensky and Russia’s Putin talk about possible peace process: CNN
China reportedly bans foreign computers: CNBC
US mfg sector’s demand for college-educated workers is rising: WSJ
Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index up sharply in Dec: ZEW

Macro Briefing | 9 December 2019

Will new US tariffs on Chinese goods kick in next week? WSJ
US payrolls surged in November: CNBC
True alpha is elusive in active bond strategies, AQR research finds: InstInv
Jobs of the future found mostly in small number of US cities: Reuters
US Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 7-month high in December: Bloomberg
Consumer credit rose at second-strongest monthly rate this year in Oct: MW
The World Trade Organization’s days may be numbered: NY Times
German exports rose in Oct, defying global trade tensions: BT
Are foreign stocks poised to outperform US? CNBC

Book Bits | 7 December 2019

Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance
By Laurence B. Siegel
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Why do so many people fear the future? Is their concern justified, or can we look forward to greater wealth and continued improvement in the way we live? Our world seems to be experiencing stagnant economic growth, climatic deterioration, dwindling natural resources, and an unsustainable level of population growth. The world is doomed, they argue, and there are just too many problems to overcome. But is this really the case? In Fewer, Richer, Greener, author Laurence B. Siegel reveals that the world has improved—and will continue to improve—in almost every dimension imaginable. This practical yet lighthearted book makes a convincing case for having gratitude for today’s world and optimism about the bountiful world of tomorrow.
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Is The November Payrolls Report As Good As It Looks?

US companies hired substantially more workers than economists expected in November, providing an upside jolt to economic sentiment. From a monthly perspective, the 254,000 increase in private payrolls marks the best gain since January. No matter how you slice it, it’s a strong increase. But a closer look suggests that the slow-growth trend is still with us, even though a myopic focus on the latest employment number inspires thinking otherwise.

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Does Recession Risk Rise As The Expansion Ages?

With each passing month, the current US economic expansion sets a new record for duration (125 months and counting through November). That’s a good thing, of course, but for some analysts it’s a warning sign. Expansions, like milk and airline tickets, have a limited shelf life, or so this line of thinking goes. But the hard evidence to support this view is thin, particularly for the post-World War Two era. That doesn’t mean that recession risk is zero these days, or that storm clouds aren’t gathering. But expecting a downturn to start because the expansion’s clock has been ticking longer than before is mostly myth rather than fact.

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Macro Briefing | 6 December 2019

House to draw up articles of impeachment against Trump: Reuters
N. Korea reacts to Trump’s Nato comments with fiery rhetoric: USA Today
Opec and Russia plan on deeper oil-production cuts: CNBC
Germany’s industrial recession deepened in October: FT
Looking ahead to today’s November employment report: NY Times
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model: Q4 GDP growth estimate ticks up to +1.5%: AF
US trade gap narrowed to 16-month low in Oct as Chinese imports decline: MW
Factory orders in the US rebounded in Oct after 2 monthly losses: Reuters
Job cuts in US fell 13% over the 12 months through November: CG&C
US jobless claims fell to a 7-month low last week: CNBC