Securitized real estate shares in the US led a partial rally in global markets last week. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) posted a fractionally higher return over the second-best performer: bonds in emerging markets. Overall, returns for the trading week ended Friday, June 14, were mixed for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
Hong Kong protests continued on Sunday: CNN
Newly freed activist calls for Hong Kong leader to quit: Reuters
Iran says it will breach terms of nuclear deal in 10 days: WSJ
Trump ready to impose more tariffs on China without a trade deal: CNBC
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged this week: Reuters
Will the Fed consider if it made a mistake? NY Times
Chinese tech giant Huawei: US ban will cost it $30 billion in lost sales: CNN
Consumer sentiment in US eased in June: Bloomberg
US industrial output rebounded in May: WSJ
Business inventories for US rose in April, creating headwinds for growth: CNBC
US retail spending’s 1yr trend slipped to middling +3.2% in May:
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Surveying economists for their projections on a variety of economic and financial indicators and aggregating the results has wide appeal, and for good reason. The wisdom of the crowd, such as it is, tends to be more reliable through time compared with any one forecaster. But there are challenges with standard consensus forecasts—challenges that can minimized if not solved with econometric-based applications.
US Secretary of State blames Iran for attacks on tankers: CNN
Iran says it’s not responsible for tanker attacks: Reuters
IEA predicts global oil demand will fall to lowest level in years: CNBC
Trump and Warren: a pair of economic populists: Bloomberg
China’s mfg growth rate slowed to 17-year low in May: Reuters
Gold rises to 14-month high: WSJ
US mfg job growth accelerated in first 2 yrs of Trump admin: EIG
Import prices for US fell in May–biggest decline in five months: Reuters
US jobless claims rose 1.4% last week vs. year-ago level:
The Treasury market continues to downgrade US inflation expectations, which suggests that the case is strengthening for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Beijing will likely prevail in Hong Kong despite protests: NY Times
Smaller protests continue in Hong Kong on Thursday: Reuters
Trump: US will deploy 1,000 troops to Poland: BBC
Oil prices rise after tanker attack in Gulf of Oman: Bloomberg
Europe’s industrial output fell again in April: Reuters
Business inflation expectations hold at 2.0% in 6th Fed district: Atlanta Fed
US core consumer inflation ticks down to 2.0% annual pace in May:
Economic and political risks appear to be rising, but the global stock market remains resilient in terms of maintaining a strong year-to-date performance, based on an exchange-traded fund. Within the major components of this global ETF proxy, however, lies a dramatic evolution of leaders and laggards in recent weeks.
Low expectations prevail for possible Trump-Xi trade talks: Reuters
Trump calls Fed policies ‘ridiculous’; says board is clueless: WSJ
US Energy Sec: US will maintain oil output despite lower prices: CNBC
Hong Kong protests against extradition bill continue on Wednesday: CNN
Businesses in Hong Kong are concerned as protests roll on: NY Times
Consumer inflation in China increased to 15-month high in May: CNBC
White House economic adviser predicts US growth at 3% pace in 2019: CNBC
US Small Business Optimism Index rose to 7-month high in May: NFIB
US wholesale inflation barely rose in May: MW
Core Consumer Price Index for May expected to slip to +2.0% annual pace:
Recent volatility in US economic indicators has trimmed the outlook for the upcoming second-quarter GDP report (due at the end of July), but the current estimates show a degree of stability after a period of downgrades. That’s an encouraging sign, although with another month-plus of data releases to digest before the government’s preliminary Q2 GDP data is published leaves plenty of room for surprises.