Will The Fed’s Rate-Hike Plans Eventually Trigger A Recession?

The Financial Times observes that the Federal Reserve’s forecast for higher interest rates in the next several years is accompanied by expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment. Given the tendency for US recessions to coincide or closely follow periods of tighter monetary policy, it’s hard to ignore the potential for trouble down the road.
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Macro Briefing: 22 September 2017

Trump orders more sanctions on North Korea: The Hill
Will North Korea test an H-bomb in the Pacific? Bloomberg
US Leading Index rises again in Aug, signaling growth ahead: Conf. Board
US jobless claims fell sharply last week: Reuters
Philly Fed Mfg. Index increases to 3-month high in September: MarketWatch
US FHFA House Price Index up 6.3% y-o-y in July: Builder
Unless research inputs are continuously raised, growth will slow: VoxEU

Macro Briefing: 20 September 2017

Hundreds dead after powerful earthquake strikes central Mexico: BBC
Puerto Rico braces for Hurricane Maria: AP
US single-family housing construction fell for a second month in Aug: Reuters
Mixed economic signals ahead of today’s Fed announcement: Reuters
Trump threatens to “destroy” N. Korea in UN speech: USN&WR
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund reaches the $1 trillion mark: Bloomberg
Confidence in US economy ticked up last week: Gallup

Treasury Yield Spreads Near 10-Year Low Ahead Of Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in tomorrow’s policy announcement, but the crowd is anticipating that the central bank will begin to pare its $4.5 trillion debt portfolio. If unwinding the balance sheet is about to begin, which implies tighter monetary policy, the first step in the process arrives as Treasury yield spreads are close to the lowest point since the last recession weighed on the US economy.
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Macro Briefing: 18 September 2017

Hurricane Maria is strengthening, heading for Carribean islands: CNN
Analysts blame weak retail sales and industrial output on hurricane: Reuters
Economists trim US Q3 GDP forecasts after soft-than-expected reports: CNBC
Consumer sentiment dips in Sep. as economic concerns rise: UoM
NY Fed mfg. index in Sep. sticks close to 3-year high: MarketWatch
US companies hold a huge chunk of corp. debt market: FT
US business inventories edge higher in July: FoxBusiness
BIS says rising cryptocurrency risk too big for central banks to ignore: BBG
Nominal US GDP growth stable but still below expectations: Macro Musings