Is Demography Destiny For US GDP Growth?

Forecasting economic activity is generally a thankless task — unless you’re using demographics as a modeling foundation, which provides a surprisingly accurate means for looking ahead. That’s good news for analysts trying to develop robust estimates of GDP growth over a medium-to-long-term horizon. But it’s also bad news if you’re expecting economic activity to accelerate on a sustainable basis.
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Book Bits | 17 June 2017

A History of the United States in Five Crashes: Stock Market Meltdowns That Defined a Nation
By Scott Nations
Review via Publishers Weekly
Nations (The Complete Book of Option Spreads and Combinations), a CNBC contributor, offers a fascinating look at five major stock market crashes: the Panic of 1907, Black Tuesday, Black Monday, the Great Recession, and the Flash Crash. Nations observes that stock market crises mean more than just tanking investment accounts. They also stop people from investing, impacting job availability and the economy as a whole. While these failures don’t have a single cause that is easy to recognize beforehand, he asserts that all five studied here share important indicators.
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Research Review | 16 June 2017 | Yield Curve Analysis

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premium
Fuwei Jiang (Central University of Finance and Economics) and
Guoshi Tong (Renmin University)

October 1, 2016
We show that uncertainty of monetary policy (MPU) commands a risk premium in the US Treasury bond market. Using the news based MPU measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) to capture monetary policy uncertainty, we find that MPU forecasts significantly and positively future monthly Treasury bond excess returns. This forecastability remains significant controlling for standard bond risk premium predictors based on yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals. The predictive power of MPU is not driven by uncertainty of economic growth, inflation and general economic condition, and is confirmed in out-of-sample tests.
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