Macro Briefing: 24 November 2017

Next week will be crucial for GOP’s tax plan: Bloomberg
Zimbabwe’s first new President in 37 years takes power: BBC
German business optimism rises to record on economic growth: Bloomberg
US Consumer Sentiment Index edges up in Nov, close to decade high: CNBC
US durable goods orders slide 1.2% in October: USA Today
Jobless claims fall in US for first time in 3 weeks: Reuters
Fed minutes reflect optimism on US growth outlook: CNBC
Is US heading into a record holiday shopping season? Fox News
FAANG and other tech stocks have surged this year: ReCode

5 Questions For Bob Dieli, NoSpinForecast.com

The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, which is widely viewed as a warning sign for the economy. The 10-year/2-year spread fell to 59 basis points on Tuesday (Nov. 21), the lowest in a decade. But the US economic profile looks solid. The mixed messages have more than a few analysts and investors scratching their heads. For some perspective, The Capital Spectator chatted with Bob Dieli, an economist at RDLB, Inc., a boutique consultancy that publishes business-cycle analysis at www.NoSpinForecast.com.
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Macro Briefing: 22 November 2017

FCC releases plan to repeal regs that ensure equal access to internet: NY Times
Fed is concerned that US labor market may be overheating: Bloomberg
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index rises sharply in Oct: Chicago Fed
US existing home sales up 2% in Oct: Reuters
Optimism continues to lift world equity markets: Reuters
Vanguard projects stock returns of 4%-6% for medium term: CNBC
Blackrock: Flattening yield curve isn’t a warning sign for the US economy: CNBC
10-Year/2-Year Treasury spread falls to 59 basis points, lowest since 2007:

Macro Briefing: 21 November 2017

Justice Dept files lawsuit to block AT&T/Time-Warner merger: Bloomberg
Trump administration ends residency status for 59,000 Haitians: NY Times
Trump promises “huge tax cut for Christmas”: AP
US Leading Economic Index rose more than expected in October: CNBC
Fed Chair Yellen will leave board when successor is sworn in: Reuters
2-Year Treasury yield rises to 1.77%–highest level since 2008:

Macro Briefing: 20 November 2017

Efforts to form a new government in Germany collapse: BBC
Zimbabwe’s Mugabe refuses to step down: Reuters
GOP bets on trickle-down economics in tax plan: USA Today
Japan’s export growth points to continued Q4 economic expansion: Reuters
US housing starts surged in Oct, near post-recession high: MarketWatch
Kansas City Mfg Index slides in Nov but still showing “solid” growth: KC Fed
Goldman Sachs expects 4 interest rate hikes for the US in 2018: Bloomberg
AAII bullish sentiment posts largest one-week decline since 2013: Bespoke

Book Bits | 18 November 2017

Who Can You Trust?: How Technology Brought Us Together and Why It Might Drive Us Apart
By Rachel Botsman
Review via Kirkus Reviews
At a time when trust in institutions—Congress, the church, the media, etc.—is in great jeopardy, another form of trust is quickly becoming the glue that keeps society together. It is called distributed trust, and it involves “people trusting other people through technology,” writes business consultant Botsman (co-author: What’s Mine Is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption, 2010). Later in the book, she continues, “the rise of multi-billion-dollar companies such as Airbnb and Uber, whose success depends on trust between strangers, is a clear illustration of how trust can now travel through networks and marketplaces.” In an absorbing, story-filled narrative that will leave readers with a new understanding of the phenomenon that drives life in our digital age, the author makes clear that distributed trust—a “confident relationship with the unknown”—now powers such disparate enterprises as Kickstarter and other crowdfunding sites; social media platforms; peer-to-peer lending; online education courses; and Wikipedia and other information-sharing sites. In the case of self-driving cars, we now trust “our very lives to the unseen hand of technology.”
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