Daily Archives: Apr 4, 2014 at 01:34 pm EDT

Payrolls Rose At A Faster Rate In March

As expected, private payrolls increased at a faster rate last month, rising 192,000 in March vs. February, according to today’s update from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s the best monthly gain since last November. But let’s not get too excited. Although it’s encouraging to see employment growth pick up, as it has in each of the past three months, the progress is modest and so the recent numbers are a return to trend as opposed to an upside surge that hints we’re on the cusp of a dramatic change for the better.
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Macro, Markets & Cross Correlations

The Economist recently asked: “Are financial markets useful indicators of how an economy is about to perform?” The answer, of course, is yes… sometimes, depending on the data sets and the econometric techniques. Generally speaking, however, real-time asset pricing provides a deep well of intelligence for estimating the state of the business cycle. But there are plenty of traps here. Separating the signal from the noise, as they say, requires some effort. There are no silver bullets, but one tool that deserves to be on everyone’s short list is a statistical measurement known as cross correlation (CC), which quantifies the relationship between two time series across a series of time lags.
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