After the release of my new book last week (Nowcasting The Business Cycle), I’ve received questions from readers outside the US on whether the title’s available in foreign markets. The short answer: Yes. For starters, the book is listed on several Amazon sites around the world. For example, you can find it at Amazon in the UK and in Germany. Within the US, by the way, it’s available through several of the usual suspects beyond Amazon, including Barnes & Noble. One book, but a world of possibility for purchasing.
Retail sales increased sharply in March, rising 1.1%, the best monthly gain in well over a year. The news brings another clue for thinking that the recent economic slowdown was a temporary affair related to the weather. Indeed, today’s report also revived the year-over-year trend in retail spending. For the moment, March is shaping up as a positive turning point of significance for the big-picture state of US macro.
The latest weakness in the US stock market raises a question: Is this the start of a bear market or just a correction in an ongoing bull market? For the moment, there’s a good case for arguing that the latest bout of weakness is of a temporary nature. Why? Long-term momentum, although losing altitude, is still average. The analysis is subject to change, of course, and so the week ahead may be decisive for adjusting our outlook.