Daily Archives: Aug 17, 2015 at 10:17 am EDT

A Surprisingly Dark Macro Update From The NY Fed

This morning’s monthly release on manufacturing activity in the New York Fed region offers an early peek at the macro profile for August. Unfortunately, the numbers are unusually ugly. Is this an early warning sign for the US business cycle? Maybe, but it’s too soon to know for sure. That won’t stop the usual suspects from jumping to defnitive conclusions. But in the wake of a recovery that’s now in its sixth year, an obvious question arises: could macro’s pessimists, after being wrong for so long, finally be right this time?
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US Housing Starts: July 2015 Preview

Housing starts are expected to total 1.166 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in tomorrow’s update for July, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection represents a slightly lower level of residential construction activity vs. the previous month.
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US REITs Trend Higher Despite Expectations For A Rate Hike

US interest rates may be set to rise next month, at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, but the outlook for tighter monetary policy isn’t weighing on real estate investment trusts (REITs). Highly prized for relatively rich yields, REITs are said to be among the more interest-rate sensitive slices of the capital markets—not quite as vulnerable as bonds but considerably more so vs. stocks. But that theory looks a bit wobbly these days in the wake of a modest rally in securitized real estate securities.
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