Monthly Archives: September 2017

Macro Briefing: 25 September 2017

Merkel wins 4th term as German chancellor: Reuters
Yellen and Cohn are considered the frontrunners to lead Fed: NY Times
US business inflation outlook unchanged at 1.9% in September: Atlanta Fed
Dollar-denominated debt obligations outside US continues to rise: Bloomberg
The battle over Obamacare may never end: FiveThirtyEight
Japan’s government says country’s moderate recovery continues: RTT
US Composite PMI points to “strong” growth in September: IHS Markit

Book Bits | 23 September 2017

A First-Class Catastrophe: The Road to Black Monday, the Worst Day in Wall Street History
By Diana B. Henriques
Interview with author via WYNC
The 1987 financial crash is considered to be the worst day on Wall Street. In her book, A First-Class Catastrophe: The Road to Black Monday, the Worst Day in Wall Street History, Diana Henriques looks at how “Black Monday” was really seven years in the making. She writes that this was due to missed opportunities, market delusions and destructive actions that stretched from the “silver crisis” of 1980 to turf battles in Washington.
Continue reading

Will The Fed’s Rate-Hike Plans Eventually Trigger A Recession?

The Financial Times observes that the Federal Reserve’s forecast for higher interest rates in the next several years is accompanied by expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment. Given the tendency for US recessions to coincide or closely follow periods of tighter monetary policy, it’s hard to ignore the potential for trouble down the road.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 22 September 2017

Trump orders more sanctions on North Korea: The Hill
Will North Korea test an H-bomb in the Pacific? Bloomberg
US Leading Index rises again in Aug, signaling growth ahead: Conf. Board
US jobless claims fell sharply last week: Reuters
Philly Fed Mfg. Index increases to 3-month high in September: MarketWatch
US FHFA House Price Index up 6.3% y-o-y in July: Builder
Unless research inputs are continuously raised, growth will slow: VoxEU

Macro Briefing: 20 September 2017

Hundreds dead after powerful earthquake strikes central Mexico: BBC
Puerto Rico braces for Hurricane Maria: AP
US single-family housing construction fell for a second month in Aug: Reuters
Mixed economic signals ahead of today’s Fed announcement: Reuters
Trump threatens to “destroy” N. Korea in UN speech: USN&WR
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund reaches the $1 trillion mark: Bloomberg
Confidence in US economy ticked up last week: Gallup

Treasury Yield Spreads Near 10-Year Low Ahead Of Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in tomorrow’s policy announcement, but the crowd is anticipating that the central bank will begin to pare its $4.5 trillion debt portfolio. If unwinding the balance sheet is about to begin, which implies tighter monetary policy, the first step in the process arrives as Treasury yield spreads are close to the lowest point since the last recession weighed on the US economy.
Continue reading