Daily Archives: Oct 13, 2017 at 06:34 am EST

Research Review | 13 October 2017 | Expected Return

The Most Dangerous (and Ubiquitous) Shortcut in Financial Planning
John West and Amie Ko (Research Affiliates)
September 2017
Using historical returns to forecast the future is one of the most common shortcuts in financial planning. Investment advisors who use only past returns to forecast future returns may well be creating unrealistic expectations and poor investment outcomes for their clients. Our online Asset Allocation Interactive, which uses starting yields to forecast future long-term returns, gives advisors a rich toolkit with which to construct portfolios most likely to achieve their clients’ financial goals.
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Macro Briefing: 13 October 2017

Trump is expected to decertify Iran nuclear deal: BBC
House Speaker Paul Ryan says tax reform is a priority: RTT
Jobless claims continue to fall as hurricanes influence fades: Reuters
A rebound in energy prices lifts producer price index for Sep: USA Today
Fed Gov. Brainard says soft inflation’s explanaion is unclear: MarketWatch
Fed’s Powell: rate hikes will be “gradual”: MNI
Bitcoin rises above $5800 — a new record: CoinDesk
Big banks project rising deliquency rate for consumer loans: Bloomberg