European Central Bank expected to trim bond-buying stimulus: Reuters
House speaker Ryan says tax reform now faces its biggest challenges: The Hill
US new home sales surge, reaching the highest level in 10 years: Reuters
Sep. orders for US durable goods rise the most in three months: USA Today
Is the latest rise in Treasury yields just more noise? Alhambra Investments
Singapore central bank chief: global investors underrate risk: Bloomberg
How did Australia avoid a recession for the last 25 years? News.com.au
Economic costs of climate change will rise for US in decades ahead: GAO
The Treasury market continues to price in firmer odds of another rate hike by the end of the year. Notably, the policy sensitive 2-year yield edged up to 1.60% yesterday (Oct. 24) for the first time since 2008, signaling that a hawkish bias continues to dominate fixed-income trading.
China’s President Xi lays groundwork for long rule: BBC
Despite Brexit, UK GDP growth picks up in Q3 to 0.4%: Sky News
US Composite Output Index rises to 9-month high in Oct: IHS Markit
Richmond Fed Mfg Index dips in Oct but still solidly positive: Richmond Fed
Rising earnings for key companies support market’s bullish trend: Bloomberg
Trump asks Senate Republicans for views on picking a new Fed chair: Reuters
US economic confidence improves after 2017’s first negative print: Gallup
US 10-year Treasury yield edges up to five-month high: MarketWatch
US economic activity has slowed recently, but the downshift still leaves the economic trend humming at a respectable pace, based on a broad set of indicators published to date.
Japan tells S. Korea: N. Korea threat is “critical, imminent”: Reuters
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index bounces back in Sep: MarketWatch
Business economists expect firmer growth in fourth quarter: CNBC
Will new tax cuts hurt the US economy? CNBC
Eurozone PMI: new jobs increase at fastest pace in over a decade: IHS Markit
US gov’t fiscal budget deficit is deepest in 4 years for FY2017: Haver Analytics
Betting on a flatter yield curve is the new new thing: Bloomberg
Losses dominated the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. But three corners of the global markets bucked the trend with gains: US stocks, junk bonds in the US, and high-yield bonds in foreign markets.
Catalonia crisis deepens after Madrid decides to take control: BBC
Italy’s Lombardy and Veneto regions vote for autonomy: Bloomberg
Japan’s Abe wins majority in parliamentary election: Nikkei
Trump outlines plan for “biggest tax cuts ever” in TV interview: Fox
US existing home sales rebound in September: Reuters
Yellen: Fed making “good progress” reducing its bond portfolio: NY Times
Is the oil market underestimating China’s demand?: Bloomberg
Bitcoin market cap tops $128 billion: Sydney Morning Herald
US 10-year Treasury yield rises to a 3-month-plus high:
The Oct. 22 edition of The US Business Cycle Risk Report has been published and emailed to subscribers.
● A Century of Wealth in America
By Edward N. Wolff
Review via Publishers Weekly
Wolff (Top Heavy), an economics professor at New York University, will remind many of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century with this comprehensive and thorough study of the accumulation, distribution, and preservation of wealth in the United States. Wolff confirms the middle class’s increasingly precarious standing and the rise of income inequality. As to who the rich are in America, he shows that they are overwhelmingly white, married, highly educated, older, and self-employed, most likely in finance or business and professional services. And the remaining 99%? Their incomes have stagnated since the 1970s, despite the compensatory addition of many women to the workforce and huge increases in household debt levels—the latter, Wolff writes, just to maintain living standards, not to “binge” on consumption.
Yields are still low but the Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates further. Conventional wisdom says that this scenario makes bonds a toxic asset class going forward. Maybe, but the analysis is more nuanced when we consider fixed-income from an asset allocation perspective, as a recent report from AQR Capital Management advises.