Monthly Archives: October 2017

Macro Briefing: 20 October 2017

UK prime minister asks EU for help with Brexit: Guardian
Trump favors Fed Governor Powell for next Fed chief: Politico
Analysts predict low returns across asset classes: Bloomberg
US Leading Index falls in Sep–first decline in 12 months: Conference Board
US jobless claims fall to 44-year low for week through Oct 14: MarketWatch
Philly Fed Mfg Index surprises forecasters with a solid rise for Oct: RTT
La Nina expected to bring warmer-than-usual temps to US this winter: CNBC

Low Volatility In Everything

A rising number of investors are anxious about the “bull market in everything”, but the markets are calm, based on rolling 90-day volatility (standard deviation). It may be the calm before the storm, although research on volatility clustering suggests that the tranquil times can roll on for longer than expected. The tide will turn eventually, of course, and perhaps soon, but the rear-view mirror at the moment shows that the landscape is unusually serene across the board for the major asset classes in recent history, based on a set of exchange-traded products via rolling 90-day standard deviation of one-day percentage returns.
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Macro Briefing: 19 October 2017

China’s Q3 GDP growth rate ticks lower at 6.8% vs. year earlier: RTT
Spain set to impose direct rule on Catalonia on Saturday: Reuters
Year-ahead US inflation expectations tick down to 1.8% pace: Atlanta Fed
Dallas Fed chief: lower 10-year Treasury yield may be a warning sign: Reuters
US housing construction slows in September: HousingWire
Conservatives campaign against Yellen’s reappointment to Fed: Bloomberg
Treasury Secretary says stocks wil fall sharply without tax reform: LA Times
A new milestone for the Dow Jones Industrials: closing above 23,000: Reuters

Macro Briefing: 17 October 2017

Iraq in process of retaking oil fields from Kurds: Independent
UK inflation at five-year high, lifting rate-hike odds: Reuters
Brexit talks at risk of collapse: Independent
NY Fed manufacturing benchmark rises to 3-year high for Oct: MarketWatch
China’s central bank chief: China’s growth will rise to 7% in 2017’s H2: RTT
Senate GOP support for tax reform strengthens: Reuters
Fed’s rate hikes risk going into next recession with low inflation: Fed Watch
Goldman Sachs: Intensifying geopolitical risk is lifting oil prices:

Macro Briefing: 16 October 2017

Austria elects a right-leaning populist: Politico
Catalonia keeps Spain guessing on independence at deadline: Politico
N. Korean cyber-hacking is a growing global threat: NY Times
US retail spending surges in Sep — the most in 2-1/2 years: USA Today
Consumer inflation in the US rises sharply in Sep: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment Index jumps in Oct to highest level since 2004: UoM
Fed Chair Yellen, hinting at rate hike, says US economy is strong: Reuters
China’s influence on international markets will continue to grow: Bloomberg
Gold and inflation-indexed Treasuries remain highly correlated: Scott Grannis