Daily Archives: Dec 5, 2017 at 07:14 am EST

Treasury 10yr-2yr Yield Spread Continues To Slide

The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields fell to 57 basis points on Monday (Dec. 4), according to Treasury.gov’s daily data. The dip marks yet another post-recession low for this widely monitored spread. The flattening of the yield curve implies that the economy is facing stronger headwinds, based on the spread’s history vis-à-vis the US business cycle. But the macro trend remains solid at the moment, suggesting that the 10-year/2-year yield gap has shed its value, at least temporarily, as an early warning of US recession risk.
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Macro Briefing: 5 December 2017

Supreme Court OKs Trump travel ban: NY Times
Killing of Yemen’s ex-president will impact Yemen’s civil war: Guardian
Brexit talks grind to a halt over Irish border standoff: Reuters
SEC’s new cyber unit halts initial coin offering scam: RTT
Factory orders dip 0.1% in Oct; business spending solid: Reuters
Eurozone economic growth strengthens in Nov, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
Average retirement account at Fidelity hits record high: Bloomberg