Daily Archives: Dec 19, 2017 at 07:25 am EST

Are Recent S&P 500 Returns Excessive? Part II

Last week I reviewed US stock-market returns in context with recent history for perspective on deciding if the latest bull run is extreme. The results suggest that current trailing performance for one and three years was impressive but not yet off the charts. The caveat is that the analysis focused on the last quarter century using a proxy ETF. Will the results change if we use a much longer data set?
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Macro Briefing: 19 December 2017

Trump unveils national security strategy focusing on America First: The Hill
House set to roll out huge $81 billion disaster relief bill: Politico
Homebuilder sentiment in the US rises to 18-year high in Dec: Bloomberg
Inflation expectations rise at Japanese companies: RTT
CalPERS raises bond allocation to 28% from 20%: Reuters
Minneapolis Fed President voted against rate hike due to low inflation: Reuters
Morgan Stanley: low market vol “is reflective of the fundamentals”: MarketWatch
2-year Treasury yield above S&P 500 div yield for first time in a decade: Schwab