Monthly Archives: January 2018

Macro Briefing: 18 January 2018

GOP moves closer to avert gov’t shutdown, but risks still lurk: The Hill
Turkey may intervene in Syria unless US pulls support for Kurds: Reuters
US industrial production rises a strong 0.9% in December: USA Today
Housing Market Index for US ticks down in Jan after 18yr high: HousingWIre
Fed Beige Book: US economy, inflation rise at modest-to-moderate pace: CBS
Prof. Barry Eichengreen: Fed isn’t prepared for the next recession: Japan Times
China’s official economic data overstate the country’s growth rate: NY Times
Dow Jones Industrial Avg closed above 26,000 for first time: Wall Street Journal

Yield Curve Flattens As 2-Year Treasury Rate Rises Above 2%

The 2-year Treasury yield is above 2% for the first time in nearly a decade. This rate, which is seen as a key proxy for monetary policy expectations, ticked up to 2.03% on Tuesday (Jan. 16), based on daily data via Treasury.gov. The increase, coupled with a fractional dip in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 2.54%, squeezed the widely followed spread 10-year/2-year spread to 51 basis points, matching the low reached last month that marks the smallest difference since 2007.
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Macro Briefing: 17 January 2018

GOP plans stopgap funding to keep government open past Saturday: USA Today
US Secretary of State talks of possible war with North Korea: Bloomberg
22 states sue Federal government over repeal of net neutrality: The Hill
World Economy Forum survey: political and economic risks are rising: Reuters
NY Fed Mfg Index: growth ticked lower in Jan but still growing at solid pace: NY Fed
Will higher oil, currency prices force ECB to tighten monetary policy? Bloomberg
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffer sharp price declines: CNBC
Median 1yr consumer inflation expectations in Dec tick up to 10mo  high: NY Fed

Growth Stock Rally Continues To Overshadow Value Investing

The exuberance in the US stock market of late may or may not be irrational, but the party atmosphere in the value corner of equities (companies that are inexpensively priced) is subdued vs. the celebratory surge for growth shares (firms expected to grow at above market rates). Although both measures of US companies in the large-cap space are posting solid gains, the gap in favor of growth has become conspicuously wide lately.
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Macro Briefing: 16 January 2018

Risk of US government shutdown looms as Jan. 19 deadline approaches: CNN
Turkey’s president warns of attack against US-backed rebels in Syria: Reuters
Oil rises three-year high, supported by global growth and production cuts: Reuters
Wall Street eyes higher inflation in 2018: Bloomberg
Research claims “single actor” lifted Bitcoin to $1000 from $150: TechCrunch
China’s crackdown on Bitcoin accelerates: CNBC
Boeing unveils supersonic plane design for speeds up to Mach 5: Fox
US policy uncertainty is rising: Econobrowser

Macro Briefing: 15 January 2018

US immigration deal’s prospects fade in wake of Trump comments: Fox
Thousands flee in Philippines on warnings of imminent volcano eruption: CNN
Hawaii issues false alert about missile attack: New York
Euro reaches three-year high against US dollar: Reuters
US retail spending rises 0.4% in Dec, matching expectations: RTT
US core consumer inflation in Dec rises the most in 11 months: Reuters
Nov business inventories in US post biggest rise since Aug: Dow Jones
China’s retail sales expected to match US spending in 2018: WaPo

Book Bits | 13 January 2018

When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing
By Daniel H. Pink
Summary via publisher (Riverhead Books)
Drawing on a rich trove of research from psychology, biology, and economics, Pink reveals how best to live, work, and succeed. How can we use the hidden patterns of the day to build the ideal schedule? Why do certain breaks dramatically improve student test scores? How can we turn a stumbling beginning into a fresh start? Why should we avoid going to the hospital in the afternoon? Why is singing in time with other people as good for you as exercise? And what is the ideal time to quit a job, switch careers, or get married?
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