Monthly Archives: January 2018

ADP: US Payrolls Post Healthy Rise In January

Corporate payrolls increased by a robust 234,000 in January, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. The gain is slightly below December’s 242,000, although both numbers point to a solid rate of expansion in the labor market. Taking today’s update at face value points to a better-than-expected advance in Friday’s official employment report that’s due from the Labor Department. The mystery is why the government’s data to date has been trailing ADP’s estimates by a comparatively wide margin. Will the upcoming report from Washington close the gap? Or has the ADP data been overestimating the strength of the economy’s record on minting new jobs?
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Macro Briefing: 31 January 2018

Trump links presidency to US prosperity in State of the Union speech: Bloomberg
Five key takeaways in Trump’s State of the Union speech: The Hill
Fed on track to leave rates unchanged in Yellen’s last meeting as chair: Reuters
N. Korea expected to parade missiles ahead of Winter Olympics in S. Korea: CNN
Is Amazon’s entry into healthcare space a step to reordering industry? Bloomberg 
US Consumer Confidence Index rises in Dec, close to 18-year high: CNBC
Case-Shiller index: US home prices rise 6.2% in Nov vs year-ago level: USA Today
Should int’l investors show more respect (fear) for forex risk? The Economist
Trump’s approval by state — West Virginia leads, Vermont lags: Gallup

Will Economic Data Support The Recent Rise In The 10-Year Yield?

The benchmark 10-year rate yesterday (Jan. 30) jumped to 2.70% for the first time since 2014, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. One of the catalysts is firmer expectations for higher inflation. A weaker dollar is a factor too. Whatever the reason, the technical profile for the 10-year rate has recently shifted to an upside posture, signaling that the trend will continue.
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Macro Briefing: 30 January 2018

Washington think-tank projects US budget deficit above $1 trillion in 2019: Reuters
CIA director says Russia may meddle in this fall’s US mid-term elections: BBC
Eurozone GDP increased by a solid 0.6% in 2017’s fourth quarter: Bloomberg
What’s on the agenda for Trump’s state of the union speech tonight? USA Today
US consumer spending up 0.4% in Dec as savings rate drops to 12yr low: Reuters
Japan retail spending rises 0.9% in Dec, beating expectatins: RTT
Dallas Fed mfg production index eases in Jan after reaching 11yr high: Dallas Fed
Obamacare reduced financial distress for young adults: Philly Fed
Rising Treasury yields pose a risk for stocks: Bloomberg
10-year Treasury yield reaches 2.7% for first time since 2014: MarketWatch

Macro Briefing: 29 January 2018

Trump faces deadline on implementing Russia sanctions: Politico
Israel’s Netanyahu in Moscow for talks on Syria with Putin: Reuters
Trump admin. considering nationalizing portion of US mobile network: Axios
Shale oil boom boosts US leverage in economics and diplomacy: NY Times
2017:Q4 increasaes 2.6%, slowest rise since since Q1: MarketWatch
US durable goods orders rose 2.9% in Dec, the most in six months: Bloomberg
How much longer will rising consumer confidence lift the US economy? NY Times
US merchandise-trade deficit widens to biggest gap since 2008: Bloomberg
UK GDP growth beats expectations in Q4 with 0.5% increase: RTT
For first time in nearly a decade, all the major economies expanding: NY Times

 

Book Bits | 27 January 2018

When Things Don’t Fall Apart: Global Financial Governance and Developmental Finance in an Age of Productive Incoherence
By Ilene Grabel
Author quote via Bloomberg
If countries coordinate their economic policies too closely, their business cycles could become overly synchronized, leading to booms—and busts—that are global in scale. And if there’s just one unified world financial architecture, mistakes could propagate through it more quickly and destructively than if there are multiple, competing systems.
The analogy is to a forest that has only one species of tree: A single insect or fungus could spread rapidly and wipe out the whole thing. Diversity in governance can make the financial system safer, argues Ilene Grabel, a professor at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies and author of a new book, When Things Don’t Fall Apart: Global Financial Governance and Developmental Finance in an Age of Productive Incoherence.
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US GDP Growth Trails Estimates In Q4 But 1-Year Trend Picks Up

Economists were looking for a 2.9% rise for GDP in today’s fourth-quarter report, according to Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. The actual number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis advised, was softer than expected, decelerating to 2.6% — the slowest since the weak 1.2% gain in 2017’s Q1. The latest rise is still a decent number, although no one’s popping champagne corks over the results. On the other hand, looking through the quarterly figures suggests that the recent improvement in economic output still has upside momentum.
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