Monthly Archives: January 2018

Macro Briefing: 26 January 2018

Trump denies that he tried to fire special counsel for Russia probe: LA Times
Demand surge for risk assets triggers “tactical pullback” warning: Bloomberg
US economy expected to post brisk growth in today’s Q4 GDP report: Reuters
US Leading Index up in Dec, predicting “strong economic growth” for 1H 2018: CB
US jobless claims rose last week to 233,000, but remain low: WSJ
New home sales in US fell more than forecast in Dec: Bloomberg
Manufacturing growth picked up in Kansas City Fed region: Bond Buyer
Atlanta Fed’s revised Q4 GDP nowcast holds steady at 3.4%: Atlanta Fed

US Q4 GDP Growth Expected To Hold Steady Near 3%

Tomorrow’s preliminary GDP report for the fourth quarter is on track to post a growth rate at or near the roughly 3% pace that’s prevailed in the previous two quarters, according to several estimates. If the projection is accurate, the US economy will log another healthy gain in quarterly output, reaffirming recent evidence that the macro trend picked up speed in 2017.
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Macro Briefing: 25 January 2018

Trump says he’s willing to testify under oath in Russia probe: Reuters
Trump urges Turkey to scale back Kurdish offensive in Syria: The Hill
Will a strong euro delay a rate hike at the European Central Bank? Reuters
Oil jumps to three-year high: MarketWatch
US PMI: strong mfg start for 2018 as services sector growth eases: IHS Markit
Eurozone PMI: survey data for Jan reflects strongest growth in 12 years: IHS Markit
Japan Mfg PMI rises to three-year high in December: IHS Markit
US dollar falls to 3-year low against foreign currencies: CNBC
FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.4% (s.a.) in Nov, up 6.5% y-o-y:  MND

Is A Weaker Dollar A Plus For US Economic Growth?

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that a softer dollar will juice US economic growth. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he advises that “obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.” Does that mean that tracking the dollar’s value in foreign exchange markets offers insight into projecting US GDP in the near term? Alas, no. A preliminary look at the numbers suggests the relationship between a broad measure of the US dollar and GDP growth is mostly noise.
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Macro Briefing: 24 January 2018

Senate approves Powell as Fed chairman: Bloomberg
CIA Director says N. Korea may use nukes for “coercive” purposes: CNN
Montana implements net neutrality rules following FCC repeal: The Hill 
Economists expect global growth to reach 8-year high in 2018: Reuters
US Treasury Secretary says a weaker dollar benefits US economy: Bloomberg
Is positive sentiment at Davos meeting a contrarian indicator? Guggenheim
One-sixth of millennials have saved $100,000 or more: USA Today
Richmond Fed Mfg Index: growth slows to 3-mo low in Jan: Richmond Fed
Employment up in half of US states in 2017; no change in other half: Labor Dept

Macro Briefing: 23 January 2018

Government shutdown ends as Trump signs funding bill into law: USA Today
Chasm between Dems and GOP widens after shutdown drama: Bloomberg
Trump announces 30% tariff on imported solar technology: The Hill
China has options for responding to Trump’s import tariffs: Bloomberg
IMF report advises that “global economic activity continues to firm up”: IMF
PA court decision on state’s congressional map gives Dems an edge: Politco
VP Pence announces accelerated US embassy move to Jersusalem: LA Times
Chicago Fed Nat’t Activity Index reflects faster US growth in Dec: Chicago Fed
10-year Treasury yield ticks up to 2.66%, highest since 2014: CNBC

Macro Briefing: 22 January 2018

US gov’t shutdown spills over into Monday: The Hill
Eric Trump tells Fox News shutdown is “good thing for us” politically: CBS
Turkish troops roll into Syria, toward US-backed Kurdish fighters: Bloomberg
US Consumer Sentiment Index dips to six-month low in January: Bloomberg
UK retail spending plunged in Dec following Black Friday surge: MNI
Oxfam: 82% of wealth created in 2017 went to world’s richest 1%: BBC
US gov’t shutdown history shows limited influence on stock market: MarketWatch
Hedge Fund Research: Hedge funds end 2017 with record-high assets: P&I
US asset flows in 2017 accelerated into passive while active retreated: Morningstar