Daily Archives: Feb 20, 2018 at 07:04 am EDT

There Are (Still) No Shortcuts For Estimating Recession Risk

The St. Louis Fed last week pondered the question: “Is the U.S. Due for a Recession?” In a blog post the bank advised that after a long expansion “there is a concern that, even though the economy looks good right now, the next recession may be lurking just around the corner.” On the short list for possible smoking guns, the post continued, is the low unemployment rate, which is currently at 4.1%, which is near a two-decade low.
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Macro Briefing: 20 February 2018

Iran responds with a warning of its own after Israel PM’s fiery speech: CNN
Will Iran’s “axis of resistance” trigger another war in the Mideast? NY Times
Senate seeks to roll back bank regs put in place after 2008 crash: Politico
Gun-control push finds new traction after Florida shooting: WaPo
Diversification may be challenged this year as a risk-management tool: Bloomberg
The case for global small-cap stocks is strenghtening: Fortune Financial
Ethereum’s co-founder: digital currencies could “drop to near-zero”: MarketWatch
Americans are starting to view the GOP tax plan more favorably: NY Times