Daily Archives: Mar 8, 2018 at 07:05 am EST

Treasury Market’s Inflation Forecast At Highest Level In Five Years

The implied inflation outlook via 5-year Treasuries ticked up to the 2.10% mark this week for the first time since 2013. The increase matches the forecast for 10-year Notes, which have been estimating future inflation at or above the 2.10% mark since mid-February. The forecasts are based on the yield spreads for the nominal rates less their inflation-indexed counterparts.
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Macro Briefing: 8 March 2018

Trump plans to impose steel tariffs despite threats of retaliation: Bloomberg
China has “necessary response” to new US trade tariffs: Guardian
Europe plans to retaliate if US imposes trade tariffs: NY Times
A wary US considers N. Korea’s offer of detente: Reuters
S. Korean officials head to US to brief Trump on N. Korea meeting: CNN
ADP: US private sector added a strong 235,000 jobs in Feb: USA Today
Consumer credit growth slows to four-month low: Bloomberg
US trade deficit widens to deepest gap in over 9 years: WSJ
Fed Beige Book: growth still positive as inflation picking up: MarketWatch
SEC says cryptocurrency exchanges must be registered: LA Times
US productivity flat in Q4 as pace of labor costs tick higher: MarketWatch
Fed funds futures continue to price in high probability of rate hike on Mar 21: CME