Trade tensions and geopolitical risk remain potential threats to US economic growth in the second half of the year and beyond, but the search for smoking guns in the published numbers continues to turn up empty. Near-term estimates of the US business cycle point to a mild deceleration in the trend (see details below). It’s unclear at this stage if the projected softening is a warning sign or noise. What’s beyond doubt is that the indicators published to date reflect a solid run of growth.
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Iran says it would react if US tries to block its oil exports: Reuters
Trump considers removing security clearances for former Obama officials: The Hill
N. Korea reportedly dismantling key part of missile launch site: Bloomberg
California’s power grid operator urges customers to conserve energy: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI: euro area growth eases in July: IHS Markit
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index rebounded in June: Bond Buyer
US existing home sales fell for third month in June: HousingWire
Analysts expect strong gain for corporate earnings in second quarter: NY Times