Daily Archives: Aug 28, 2018 at 07:35 am EDT

US Recession Risk Is Low, According To Current Q3 GDP Estimates

The flattening yield curve has sparked worries that a new recession is near, but the near-term outlook for growth still looks healthy, based on the latest set of nowcasts for third quarter GDP, as compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate points to a solid 3.3% increase for Q3 output. Although that’s down from the 4.1% advance reported in in the “advance” Q2 report, the current projection suggests that the risk of economic contraction is low for the immediate future.
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Macro Briefing: 28 August 2018

Trump says he’s agreed on new trade deal with Mexico: Bloomberg
US-Mexico trade deal isn’t good news for US-China trade negotations: CNBC
World stocks at 6-mo high after US-Mexico trade deal announcement: Reuters
SF Fed research note: yield curve may be signaling rising recession risk: Reuters
US Consumer Confidence: another strong reading expected for Aug: Econoday
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index’s 3mo avg dips, but no recession on near horizon: