Monthly Archives: January 2019

US GDP Still Expected To Post Moderate Gain For Q4

Next week’s scheduled release of gross domestic product (GDP) for last year’s fourth quarter will likely be delayed due to the partial government shutdown, but the latest estimates for the indicator still point to a moderate gain. The median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator reflects a 2.9% increase for Q4 GDP, which is fractionally higher vs. the previous estimate (published on Jan. 15.)
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Macro Briefing: 25 January 2019

Senate rejects a pair of plans to reopen government: The Hill
Senate explores new options for reopening gov’t after failed efforts: Bloomberg
Venezuela’s military backs Maduro; Russia warns US not to intervene: NY Times
Profiling the risk if US blocks oil imports from Venezuela: AP
US Economic Leading Index fell in Dec, hinting at slower growth in 2019: CB
Some datasets in Leading Index estimated due to gov’t shutdown: MNI
Bloomberg’s consumer sentiment index fell to near-7 month low: Bloomberg
Jobless claims in US fell to 49-year low last week: Reuters
KC Fed Mfg Index continues to reflect modest growth in January: KC Fed
US growth ticked up in January according to PMI survey data: IHS Markit

Macro Briefing: 24 January 2019

Trump defers to Pelosi and agrees to delay SOTU speech: Politico
Upcoming Senate votes on reopening gov’t expected to fail: Bloomberg
Aviation workers: gov’t shutdown poses rising risk for air travel: NY Times
Venezuela’s opposition leader claims presidency, receives US support: Reuters
American business leaders remain upbeat on economic outlook: NY Times
Poll: US growth will slow in Q1 due to gov’t shutdown: Reuters
Eurozone economy close to stalling in Jan via PMI survey: IHS Markit
Global gov’t debt rose to $66 trillion at 2018-end–double year-ago level: Fitch
US FHFA House Price Index increased 5.7% in Oct vs year-ago level: HousingWire
Richmond Fed: mfg activity was ‘soft’ in Jan in the bank’s district: Richmond Fed
Earnings sentiment (ERR) is weakest since mid-2016: BlackRock

Macro Briefing: 23 January 2019

Congress set to vote on bills to end partial gov’t shutdown: Politico
US national intelligence director warns of increasing threats: NY Times
UK trade minister see ‘good chance’ for a Brexit deal: CNBC
Ex-US Marine, held in Russia on spying charges, is denied bail: Newsweek
Three men and teen arrested in alleged plot to bomb muslims in upstate NY: CNN
LA teachers end week-long strike: USA Today
Brazil’s Bolsonaro gives pro-business speech at Davos: Reuters
Existing homes sales fell 10.3% in Dec vs. year-ago level: MW
US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index spiked to 2-1/2 yr high on Tues: FRED
US truck shipments fell in year-over-year terms in Dec — first loss in 2 years: Axios


Value In The Lead For US Equity Factor Returns So Far In 2019

Trading is set to resume today for the US stock market with value firmly in the lead for year-to-date performance for the major equity factors, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. In fact, a positive bias prevails across the board for stocks so far in 2019. Headwinds may be brewing via several areas of concern, including softer global growth and the ongoing partial government shutdown. But as the crowd returns to work after a long weekend, value enjoys a sizable performance edge in the new year.
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Macro Briefing: 22 January 2019

Senate unlikely to approve Trump’s plan to reopen gov’t: WSJ
Taliban attack on military base in Afghanistan kills dozens: NBC
Report finds a new previously undisclosed missile base in N. Korea: USA Today
China warns US and Canada on extradition of Huawei exec: SCMP
UK’s Labour Party moves closer to securing 2nd Brexit referendum: Reuters
US recession worries are on the rise: CNN
Americans’ outlook for economy has soured in the past 2 months: Gallup
IMF trims 2019 growth estimates for global economy: IMF 

Macro Briefing: 21 January 2019

China’s economic growth decelerated to 28-year low in 2018: CNBC
Israel attacked Iranian forces in Syria: NBC
Is the Fed the source of this year’s rebound in stocks? NY Times
Senate GOP leader to introduce bill this week to reopen gov’t: Politico
Trump-Pelosi battle rages on over gov’t shutdown: WaPo
Missing US economic data due to shutdown leaves hole for macro analysis: MW
The rich have become richer since the financial crisis: Bloomberg
Consumer sentiment in US fell sharply in January: MW
US industrial output rebounded in Dec, but annual pace eased to 4.0%: CNBC