Daily Archives: Mar 8, 2019 at 09:44 am EST

It (Still) Looks Like A Bear Market For US Stocks: Update

It appears that the US stock market’s rally this year has trashed the bear-market calls made at the end of 2018 and repeated in late-January, based on a version of the Hidden Markov model (HMM). But a fresh run of The Capital Spectator’s application of HMM for profiling the big-picture trend is doubling down on the analysis of the S&P 500 Index. Animal spirits have revived in 2019 after a sharp slide late last year, but the model continues to insist that a bearish bias endures. Taking the analysis at face value, if you’re so inclined, suggests that this year’s bounce is a bear-market rally.
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Macro Briefing: 8 March 2019

ECB revives some measures of stimulus as global economy slows: NY Times
German factory orders fell in Jan, another sign of economic slowdown: Bloomberg
China’s exports plunged 21% in Feb: CNBC
Fed Governor Brainard: macro outlook supports ‘softer’ rate path: Bloomberg
US consumer debt rose in Jan, suggesting support for spending: Bloomberg
Job cuts in US jumped to 3-1/2 year high in February: CG&C
US jobless claims fell in early March, signaling strong labor market: MW