Daily Archives: Mar 29, 2019 at 07:39 am EDT

Is This Year’s Rebound In Global Markets Overbought?

How do you define irrational exuberance? There’s no single answer, much less one that offers flawless signals for timing rallies and corrections in financial markets. But judging by the latest trend data for all the major asset classes (based on proxies via a set of exchange-traded funds) suggests that this year’s rally may be overextended for strategies that are globally diversified.
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Macro Briefing: 29 March 2019

Chinese and US negotiators working on agreement to end trade war: Bloomberg
UK was slated to leave EU today, but that’s not happening… at least not yet: CNN
German retail spending up more than expected in February: Reuters
Japanese industrial output rose in Feb–first gain in 4 months: NHK
The US economy may make (or break?) Trump’s re-election prospects: NY Times
US Q4 GDP growth revised down to moderate 2.2% gain from 2.6%: Reuters
Pending Home Sales Index for US fell in Feb despite lower mortgage rates: CNBC
KC Fed Mfg Index posts first uptick in growth in March in 4 months: KC Fed
US jobless claims fell last week, near 50-yr low, signaling strong labor market: MW