Monthly Archives: March 2019

Macro Briefing: 25 March 2019

Mueller report: No Trump-Russia Conspiracy: WSJ
Israel’s Netanyahu cuts short US trip after rockets launched from Gaza: NY Times
Global stocks continue falling on Monday: Reuters
Gov’t bond yields in developed world fall, pricing in higher macro risk: Bloomberg
US Composite PMI: US growth slips to 6-month low in March: IHS Markit
Existing home sales rebounded in Feb, rising to 11-month high: MW
Wholesale trade inventories in US rose much more than expected: RTT
Treasury yield curve inverts for first time since 2007: Bloomberg

Book Bits | 23 March 2019

The Knowledge Economy
By Roberto Mangabeira Unger
Summary via publisher (Verso)
Adam Smith and Karl Marx recognized that the best way to understand the economy is to study the most advanced practice of production. Today that practice is no longer conventional manufacturing: it is the radically innovative vanguard known as the knowledge economy. In every part of the production system it remains a fringe excluding the vast majority of workers and businesses. This book explores the hidden nature of the knowledge economy and its possible futures.
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How Does The Stock Market’s Recovery Compare With History?

The sharp rebound in the US stock market this year has cast doubts on various calls by models and pundits that a bear market started in the late-2018 plunge. But the rally hasn’t deterred bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach: the DoubleLine Capital CEO doubled down and told CNBC yesterday that the S&P 500 is still in a bear market despite closing on Thursday (Mar. 21) at the highest level since Oct. 9.
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Macro Briefing: 22 March 2019

Trump: US should recognize ‘Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights’: CNN
US officials downplay odds for a quick trade deal with China: Bloomberg
EU offers UK an extra 2 weeks to avoid a hard Brexit: Bloomberg
Eurozone mfg downturn deepens in March via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
Indonesian airline cancels order for 49 Boeing 737 Max jets: CNBC
US Leading Economic Index turned up in Feb–first rise in 5 months: CB
US jobless claims fell more than expected and reflect strong labor market: CNBC
Philly Fed Mfg Index revived in March, reversing most of Feb’s plunge: MW

Dovish Fed Keeps US Bond Rally Bubbling

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday provided the bond bulls with a fresh round of news to keep this year’s fixed-income rally running. As expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged. As an added bonus for fixed-income markets, the Fed also advised that rate hikes may remain on hold for the rest of the year. And if that wasn’t enough, the bank trimmed its outlook for economic growth in yesterday’s revision of quarterly forecasts and projected that inflation will remain subdued.
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Macro Briefing: 21 March 2019

No sign of imminent US-China trade deal, according to Trump: Bloomberg
Midwestern farmers facing widespread devastation after record floods: Reuters
Federal judge blocks oil and gas drilling in Wyoming, citing climate change: NBC
Fed keeps rates unchanged and signals no hikes for rest of year: WSJ
Federal Reserve trims outlook for US growth in 2019: CBS
UK’s May in Brussels to ask EU for 3-month extension for Brexit deadline: BBC
CEO optimism on global economic outlook falls to lowest level since Q1:2017: BR
10yr-2yr Treasury yield spread falls to 5-week low after Fed decision:

Macro Briefing: 20 March 2019

New round of negotiations scheduled for US-China trade talks: WSJ
Federal Reserve expected to keep interest rates steady today: Reuters
Fed may forecast another rate hike in today’s policy update: Bloomberg
Defaults on Chinese corporate bonds surged in 2019: CNBC
FedEx says global economy is still slowing: CNBC
Supreme Court rules certain immigrants can be detained indefinitely: The Hill
Large swaths of Midwest battle flooding: USA Today
UK’s May won’t ask for long day in Brexit deadline: Bloomberg
Japan’s gov’t downgrades economic outlook due to US-China trade war: Reuters
US factory orders barely rose in Jan but 1-year trend turned up: Reuters

Macro Briefing: 19 March 2019

Trump’s financial ties with Deutsche Bank under review in Congress: NY Times
Sen. Warren calls for eliminating electoral college: Reuters
House of Commons Speaker derails govt’s plans for 3rd Brexit vote: Bloomberg
White House outlines case against social progressive programs: CNBC
Venezuela’s opposition takes control of diplomatic offices in US: CBS
Fed struggles with interpretation over its ‘dot plot’ interest-rate projections: WSJ
US Housing Market Index holds steady in March, suggests sector is stabilizing  BB