Daily Archives: May 31, 2019 at 07:35 am EDT

Economic Risk And The Trump Factor

No model can capture it. No analyst can fully comprehend it. But it’s there and it’s not going away, at least not until the 2020 election. For good or ill, the Trump factor keeps on surprising, giving the President’s supporters reasons to cheer and opponents endless justifications to oppose his policies. The question is whether the escalating and widening battle on trade will benefit or impair the US economy in the near term and beyond? No one’s really sure at this point for the simple reason that Trump’s trade-related decisions are in flux and at times seem to evolve on a daily basis. This much is clear: the stakes continue to rise.

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Macro Briefing: 31 May 2019

Trump threatens new tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration: Reuters
Will revised NAFTA trade deal survive new US tariffs on Mexico? CNBC
China’s mfg activity contracts by more than expected in May: CNBC
N. Korea reportedly executed envoy over failed Trump-Kim summit: BBG
US pending home sales in April post 16th straight month of annual loss: MW
Fed will consider rate cut if inflation eases and global risks increase: NY Times
US Q1 GDP growth revised down slightly to still-strong +3.1%: CNBC
10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve continues to sink deeper into negative terrain: