Monthly Archives: June 2019

Book Bits | 29 June 2019

Digital Cash: The Unknown History of the Anarchists, Utopians, and Technologists Who Created Cryptocurrency
By Finn Brunton
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
The fascinating untold story of digital cash and its creators—from experiments in the 1970s to the mania over Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may appear to be a revolutionary form of digital cash without precedent or prehistory. In fact, it is only the best-known recent experiment in a long line of similar efforts going back to the 1970s. But the story behind cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and its blockchain technology has largely been untold—until now. In Digital Cash, Finn Brunton reveals how technological utopians and political radicals created experimental money to bring about their visions of the future: protecting privacy or bringing down governments, preparing for apocalypse or launching a civilization of innovation and abundance that would make its creators immortal.
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Deep-Value ETF Report: The More Things Change…

Searching for value can be a profitable strategy, but patience is usually required, sometimes in industrial-level doses. Consider today’s update of The Capital Spectator’s semi-regular deep-value fishing expedition, as seen through an ETF lens. While there’s no shortage of battered funds to contemplate, that was true in previous updates and the deepest shades of red reflect a list that’s not all that different from recent rankings.

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Macro Briefing: 28 June 2019

Winners and losers in 2nd Democratic debate: Politico
Leaders at G20 meeting confront conflicts over free trade, democracy: AP
What to expect from the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting: CNBC
Trump, in lighthearted exchange, tells Putin: Don’t meddle in election: BBC
Trump says ‘very big’ trade deals are pending with Japan and India: WSJ
US pending homes sales rebounded in May, but 1yr trend still negative: MW
US Q1 GDP growth is unrevised at +3.1% in government’s update: Reuters
US jobless claims rose to a 7-week high last week: MW

Macro Briefing: 27 June 2019

Trade-war topics on tap for Trump at G20 summit: CNN
US and China reportedly agree to tentative trade-war truce: SCMP
Looking for winners and losers in last night’s Democratic debate: USA Today
Hong Kong protests resume: Reuters
Eurozone economic sentiment index slumps to 3-year low in June: Reuters
Int’l trade gap for US widened to 5-month high in May: Bloomberg
US core durable goods orders’ 1-year trend is subdued at +1.3%:

Research Review | 26 June 2019 | The Business Cycle

The Inverted Curve and Recession: A Hoax, When It Ends?
Yosef Bonaparte (University of Colorado at Denver)
June 17, 2019
The paper shows that the chance inverted curve predicts recession is less than 3.9%, and even not statistically significant. But then we ask why investors still see linkage between inverted curve and recession? The behavior psychology research demonstrates that, for the majority, bad events (such as the 2007 event) register stronger and longer than good events, and vivid in investors’ memory. Finally, we show that the strongest and best predictor for recession is the current GDP growth.
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Macro Briefing: 26 June 2019

US Treasury Secretary: US-China trade deal is 90% complete: CNBC
Mueller will testify in Congress next month after all: WSJ
Trump threatens partial ‘obliteration’ if Iran attacks ‘anything American’: Reuters
A third Trump-Kim summit is a possibility: CNN
Fed officials tamp down expectations for a rate cut: MW
US Consumer Confidence Index falls to nearly 2-year low in June: MW

Median US Q2 GDP Growth Estimate Continues To Hold At 2.0%

Projected US economic output for the second quarter is holding steady at 2.0%, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The estimate reflects a slowdown from Q1’s 3.1% gain, but the softer increase in expected economic activity for the current quarter appears to have stabilized. Today’s median nowcast is unchanged from the moderate 2.0% estimate published two weeks ago.

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Macro Briefing: 25 June 2019

Iran says new sanctions end diplomacy with US: NBC
US tariffs on China reshaping global trade: Bloomberg
Trump attacks the Federal Reserve, again, in tweets: WSJ
Gold rally continues, rising to highest price since 2013: MW
US dollar falls to 3-month low against euro: Reuters
Biggest US banks pass Federal Reserve’s stress test: P&I
Manufacturing growth in Texas picked up in June: Dallas Fed
Below-trend US expansion continued in May: Chicago Fed