Daily Archives: Jul 16, 2019 at 07:24 am EDT

Is Manufacturing’s Potency Fading For US Business Cycle Analysis?

There are no silver bullets in the search for early warnings of economic recession, but manufacturing activity has long been on the short list of key variables to watch. No surprise, given the mostly reliable tendency of output to stumble in this corner in the early stages of contraction, if not directly ahead of a downturn’s start. But that record looks challenged since the last recession, raising the question: Has manufacturing’s value as a business cycle indicator faded?

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Macro Briefing: 16 July 2019

Trump stokes outrage as he ramps up incendiary attacks on Dems: Politico
N. Korea: nuclear talks at risk over planned US-S. Korea war games: Reuters
Will the US-China trade conflict pinch Q2 corporate earnings? MW
Japan-S. Korea trade dispute represents new risk for global economy: CNBC
German economic sentiment remains deeply negative in July: ZEW
Can a non-economist succeed as chief of the European Central Bank? NY Times
Facebook’s crypto currency plan faces broad resistance: WSJ
NY Fed Manufacturing Index rebounds in July following steep decline in June: MW