Daily Archives: Aug 15, 2019 at 07:36 am EST

And Then There Were Two (Inverted Yield-Curve Recession Signals)

One of the crowd’s favorite yield curve pairings (the spread on 10-year less 3-month Treasuries) has been signaling elevated US recession risk since May. As of yesterday (Aug. 14), the 10-year/2-year spread has gone over to the dark side too. That alone doesn’t insure that economic output will slump in the near term, but it’s a clear message that the crowd has increased its collective bet that a US downturn is approaching.

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Macro Briefing | 15 August 2019

China set to retaliate against new US tariffs: Bloomberg
Trump suggests ‘personal meeting’ with China’s Xi over Hong Kong crisis: CNBC
Warning signs suggest global economic slowdown is accelerating: WSJ
Chinese paramilitary exercise near Hong Kong — a ‘clear warning’: Reuters
US moves to block release of Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar: CNN
Business inflation expectations steady at 2.0% in August: Atlanta Fed
US import prices rose in July but trend remains weak: Reuters
10yr-2yr Treasury yield curve inverts, issuing a new recession warning: BBG