Monthly Archives: September 2019

Macro Briefing | 30 September 2019

Whistleblower in impeachment investigation expected to testify soon: WSJ
Trump demands to meet whistleblower; warns of “Big Consequences”: The Hill
China doubles security forces in Hong Kong, according to estimates: Reuters
Trump administration minimizes reports of limiting US investments in China: BBG
Chicago Fed president is “open-minded” to further rate cuts: CNBC
Forever 21 is latest US retailer to go bust: Reuters
China mfg sentiment is firmer than expected in September: CNBC
Firmer retail sales in German allay recession threat from manufacturing: Reuters
Jobless rate in Eurozone fell to 11-year low in August: MW
US consumer spending cooled in August: Reuters
10-year Treasury yield hinting at renewed downside momentum:

Book Bits | 28 September 2019

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
By Robert J. Shiller
Review via MarketWatch.com
Sometimes investors remain upbeat in the face of no shortage of what economists would otherwise consider to be terrible news. At other times they get spooked by what otherwise appears to be a mere hiccup.
This inherent difficulty of economic forecasting is a theme that has been the focus of recent research by Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller. In his recently-published book “Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events,” Shiller contends that “If enough people begin to act fearfully, their anxiety can become self-fulfilling, and a recession, sometimes a big one, may follow.”
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Macro Briefing | 27 September 2019

Whistleblower complaint claims White House concealed evidence: Reuters
Central banks debate merits of new monetary stimulus: WSJ
Eurozone economic sentiment fell in Sep to near-5-year low: Reuters
Will a no-deal Brexit drag the US into recession? Bloomberg
US immigration population growth falls to slowest pace in a decade: NY Times
Trump administration plans sharp cut in cap on refugees accepted to US: LA Times
US pending home sales rebounded in August, beating expectations: Reuters
US consumer spending’s 1-yr trend in Aug expected to hold at/near 4% gain:

Wary Investor Sentiment Continues To Favor Long Bonds In 2019

What’s keeping long-dated bonds at the head of this year’s performance ledger for fixed-income markets? Recession worries still top the list, although nervous investors can point to this week’s renewed prospects for impeaching Trump as a factor, too. Whatever the driver, year-to-date returns for bonds continue to show that long maturities are running well ahead of the rest of the field, based on a set of ETFs that span the US fixed-income markets.

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Macro Briefing | 26 September 2019

Summary of Trump’s call to Ukraine president fuels impeachment debate: The Hill
A China trade deal may be near, says Trump: Reuters
Iranian President: talks with US contingent on ending sanctions: WSJ
UK Prime Minister Johnson’s remarks spark furor in Parliament: Bloomberg
Is the US stock market betting on a rally if Trump is impeached? CNBC
New home sales in the US rebounded in Aug, close to post-recession high: CNBC

Mr. Market Ponders Impeachment Risk

The House of Representatives has formally launched an impeachment inquiry into President Trump, a turn of events with precious little history and so the investment implications are necessarily speculative. The crowd’s initial response: an orderly but determined move into safe havens, starting with Treasuries. Deciding what comes next is unclear, but it’s a reasonable guess that the political factor will remain front and center until further notice.

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Macro Briefing | 25 September 2019

Democrats launch formal impeachment inquiry on Trump: Reuters
Did Trump already admit to a crime in Ukraine crisis? Fox
Investors consider political risk anew after formal impeachment inquiry: MW
Gold strengthens as US political tensions rise: Bloomberg
China’s foreign minister: US should “remove all unreasonable restrictions”: CNBC
Mid-Atlantic region manufacturing activity eased in September: Richmond Fed
One-year trend for US home prices eased to 7-year low in July: Bloomberg
US consumer confidence stumbled in Sep, slipping to 3-month low: MW