Daily Archives: Oct 10, 2019 at 07:16 am EDT

US Treasury Market’s Inflation Forecast Slips To 4-Year Low

Ahead of today’s September report on US consumer inflation, the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 5-year maturities quietly ticked down to 1.24% in Wednesday’s trading (based on daily data via Treasury.gov). The crowd’s estimate of future pricing pressure for 5-year Notes marks the lowest level since February 2016. Although market-based estimates of future inflation should be viewed cautiously, the latest dip is a reminder that a downside bias continues to prevail in this corner of economic expectations.

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Macro Briefing | 10 October 2019

Turkey invades northeastern Syria; US says it didn’t approve the assault: BBC
Turkey’s Syria invasion ends fight against ISIS: Foreign Affairs
United States’ and China’s top trade negotiators set to meet today: Reuters
US considers a currency deal as part of China trade negotiations: Bloomberg
Fed officials considered rising recession risk at bank’s Sep meeting: The Hill
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Falling German imports in Aug highlight recession risk: Reuters
US job openings fell to a 1-1/2 year low in August: Reuters