Daily Archives: Dec 3, 2019 at 06:36 am EST

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 December 2019

The outlook for the Global Market Index’s risk premium ticked higher for a third month in a row in November. The adjustment, due to evolving market conditions, lifted GMI’s expected long-term return to an annualized 4.9% (before factoring in a “risk-free” rate). The new estimate is fractionally above last month’s forecast (4.8%) and modestly higher vs. the year-ago estimate (4.6%). GMI is an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).

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Macro Briefing | 3 December 2019

US threatens new tariffs on French goods in response to digital tax: CNBC
France says it will retaliate over new US tariff threat: Bloomberg
Global Mfg PMI reflects growth in November–first gain in 7 months: IHS Markit
Is the fate of global economy tied to the health of US consumers?: Bloomberg
US construction spending fell in Oct but 1yr trend returns to growth
In contrast with ISM data (see below), US Mfg PMI rebounds in Nov: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index continues to show mild contraction for sector in Nov: ISM