Daily Archives: Dec 6, 2019 at 11:17 am EDT

Is The November Payrolls Report As Good As It Looks?

US companies hired substantially more workers than economists expected in November, providing an upside jolt to economic sentiment. From a monthly perspective, the 254,000 increase in private payrolls marks the best gain since January. No matter how you slice it, it’s a strong increase. But a closer look suggests that the slow-growth trend is still with us, even though a myopic focus on the latest employment number inspires thinking otherwise.

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Does Recession Risk Rise As The Expansion Ages?

With each passing month, the current US economic expansion sets a new record for duration (125 months and counting through November). That’s a good thing, of course, but for some analysts it’s a warning sign. Expansions, like milk and airline tickets, have a limited shelf life, or so this line of thinking goes. But the hard evidence to support this view is thin, particularly for the post-World War Two era. That doesn’t mean that recession risk is zero these days, or that storm clouds aren’t gathering. But expecting a downturn to start because the expansion’s clock has been ticking longer than before is mostly myth rather than fact.

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Macro Briefing | 6 December 2019

House to draw up articles of impeachment against Trump: Reuters
N. Korea reacts to Trump’s Nato comments with fiery rhetoric: USA Today
Opec and Russia plan on deeper oil-production cuts: CNBC
Germany’s industrial recession deepened in October: FT
Looking ahead to today’s November employment report: NY Times
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model: Q4 GDP growth estimate ticks up to +1.5%: AF
US trade gap narrowed to 16-month low in Oct as Chinese imports decline: MW
Factory orders in the US rebounded in Oct after 2 monthly losses: Reuters
Job cuts in US fell 13% over the 12 months through November: CG&C
US jobless claims fell to a 7-month low last week: CNBC