Daily Archives: Jan 31, 2020 at 07:46 am EST

What Are You Expecting For Risk Premia?

A key part of informed decision-making on asset allocation is estimating future risk premia and using those projections to influence weights in the portfolio. The question, of course, is how to estimate premia? There are no easy answers for the simple reason that forecasting the future is complicated. A good way to start, however, is by managing expectations via history. There are many possibilities on this front, including one that’s often overlooked: profiling the distribution of historical premia for a preliminary dose of perspective.

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Macro Briefing | 31 January 2020

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by World Health Organization: WSJ
US warns citizens not to travel to China due to virus outbreak: Reuters
UK confirms first case of coronavirus: CNBC
Singapore closes border to Chinese travelers: SCMP
Eurozone GDP growth in Q4 eased to slowest gain in 7 years: Bloomberg
Britain will leave the European Union today: CNN
China manufacturing activity was flat in Jan via PMI survey: Reuters
US jobless claims remain near 50yr low, signaling strong labor market: MW
US GDP rose 2.1% in Q4, matching Q3 gain and lifting 1-year trend: