Daily Archives: Feb 11, 2020 at 07:14 am EST

Will Coronavirus Derail The Latest Bounce In US Economic Output?

Last November, the US stock market was making a seemingly risky bet that the economy would muddle through the soft patch that was weighing on output. The S&P 500 Index was making new highs, in sharp contrast with the stumbling ADS Index — the Philadelphia Fed’s real-time measure of the US business cycle was flirting with a recession signal at the time. As it turned out, the economy stabilized and the stock market has since soared to even loftier heights. But just when it looked like the macro danger had passed, the coronavirus that’s roiling on China, and spreading near and far, is increasingly seen as posing some as-yet unknown threat for the global economy and perhaps the US as well.

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Macro Briefing | 11 February 2020

Coronavirus death toll tops 1,000: Bloomberg
Is economic risk from coronavirus exaggerated? Maybe, says Ray Dalio: CNBC
US charges four Chinese intelligence officers with data hacking: Politico
Philippine President Duterte ends troop agreement with US: Reuters
Fed Chair Powell expected to give upbeat economic testimony this week: Reuters
UK economy was flat in Q4, stumbling after solid gain in Q3: Guardian
White House projections for falling US deficit look shaky: WSJ
Big tech dominates the S&P 500: CNN
Is the party over for tech stocks? Not yet, predicts Goldman Sachs: MW
10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve inverted (again) on Monday: Reuters