Daily Archives: Feb 20, 2020 at 06:47 am EDT

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 February 2020

The US economy’s slowdown in the second half of last year continues to show signs of mildly rebounding in early 2020 but a preliminary estimate for March suggests the revival is fading. There’s still no sign that recession risk is elevated, based on data published to date. Yet the revised outlook through next month (see third chart below) points to stabilization at a moderate pace of growth rather than a continuation of the recent rebound following a softer macro trend in late-2019.
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Macro Briefing | 20 February 2020

Wide-ranging attacks at Democratic debate with Bloomberg in the mix: Reuters
China’s manufacturing sector struggles to restart after virus outbreak: SCMP
White House admits that Trump’s trade policy slowed US economy: Bloomberg
Fed minutes suggest rates will remain unchanged for near term: CNBC
Gold rises to 7-year high: Bloomberg
Is soaring US stock market underestimating coronavirus risk? CNBC
Rebound in UK retail sales suggest firmer Q1 after economy stumbled: MNI
German consumer confidence expected to slightly ease in March: RTT
IMF mgr dir is wary but cautiously optimistic on global economic outlook: IMF
US wholesale inflation rose sharply in Jan, but gain may be temporary: MW
US housing starts eased in January but remain near post-recession high: