Daily Archives: Mar 10, 2020 at 07:39 am EDT

Out-Of-Sample Risk Is (Always) The Biggest Threat To Expectations

In the 1974 film “Chinatown,” Noah Cross tells Jake Gittes, the nosy detective: “You may think you know what you’re dealing with, but believe me, you don’t.” The advice isn’t out of line for investors, portfolio managers and economists who’ve studied economic and market history and assume that the future will play out with similar twists and turns by dropping robust signals ahead of the next crisis.
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Macro Briefing | 10 March 2020

Trump to propose policies to ease economic fallout from coronavirus: WSJ
Analysts consider economic and political fallout from coronavirus: Reuters
Italy expands emergency coronvirus measures to entire nation: BBC
Will a Biden win in Michigan today secure his bid as Democratic nominee? CNN
How long will the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia last? CNBC
Sharp stock market declines usually followed by rebounds, history shows: MW
How will coronavirus affect US primary elections? NY Times
Safe-haven German 10-year bond yield approaching -1.0%, a record low: Reuters