Daily Archives: Mar 17, 2020 at 07:28 am EDT

A Brief Tour Of The Dark US Economic Outlook

The published data suggest moderate growth remains intact, but the rear-view mirror has rarely been so meaningless for assessing the likely path of the economic trend in the months ahead. As the coronavirus blowback spreads, the US economy is slowing, and in many sectors grinding to a halt. The result, of course, is that a recession appears inevitable, perhaps a severe one. The optimistic view is that the downturn will be short and the bounce-back will be strong. But economists are now in agreement: output will probably contract.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing | 17 March 2020

Trump shifts tone, says coronavirus may last through summer: BBC
US economy may be grinding to a halt as coronavirus spreads: NY Times
Is the US at risk of a depression? Reuters
Morgan Stanley: global recession is now the base case: Bloomberg
Amazon to add 100,000 workers amid surge in online ordering: WSJ
Reported coronavirus infections understate actual data, study shows: NY Times
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index collapsed in the March update: ZEW
NY Fed Mfg Index falls sharply in March, reflecting contractio in sector: NY Fed
US stock mkt (S&P 500) drawdow approaches -30% after Monday’s sharp slide: