Daily Archives: Mar 25, 2020 at 08:12 am EDT

Econometric GDP Models Struggle With Coronavirus Fallout

The widespread disruption from the coronavirus pandemic is obvious to everyone, but economic nowcasting and forecasting models are only just beginning to reflect the damage to what had been a moderately expanding US economy. Thanks to the lag in economic data, which can arrive as long as two to three months after the fact, formerly robust methodologies for tracking the US macro trend have become hopelessly out of date in recent weeks. But reality is quickly catching up with previously sunny estimates.

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Macro Briefing | 25 March 2020

Congress and White House agree on $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package: CNBC
Trump wants US to return to work by Easter: CNN
US Composite PMI in March reflects sharp economic contraction: IHS Markit
German economy could fall 20% this year, new survey advises: Reuters
Global economy suffers as coronavirus spreads, survey data show: IHS Markit
US stocks posted the biggest gain on Tuesday since the Great Depression: Fortune
Gold surges and Goldman Sachs expects the rally to continue: MW