Daily Archives: Apr 9, 2020 at 08:05 am EDT

The Desperate Search For Peak Coronavirus

The most important economic indicator at the moment has nothing to do with the dismal science per se and everything to do with how a certain health crisis unfolds over the days, weeks and months ahead. The elephant in the room, of course, is coronavirus data. In particular, the point where it peaks. Depending on the country, the timing (and reliability) of the peaking varies. Ultimately, a global apex is the main event. Unfortunately, the data is questionable and the future is unclear as ever. Not a great basis for analysis and forecasting, but it’s the only game in town. With that in mind, let’s take a brief tour of US data to see where we stand.

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Macro Briefing | 9 April 2020

Sanders quits presidential race; Biden becomes presumptive Dem nominee: Vox
NY Gov Cuomo: state beginning to flatten coronavirus curve: Newsweek
Will today’s Opec+ meeting stabilize flooded oil market? CNBC
Electricity data offers a useful real-time measure of the recession: NY Times
US jobless claims expected to surge again in today’s weekly update: CNBC
Coronavirus may not fade in summer, scientists warn: NY Times
IMF, World Bank report surge of aid requests from developing world: WSJ
Fed minutes show concern over coronavirus in March: Reuters
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index posts biggest weekly decline on record: BBG