Monthly Archives: May 2020

Book Bits | 30 May 2020

The Next Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy
Tim Harford
Summary via publisher (Little, Brown)
In Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy, the revolutionary, acclaimed book, radio series and podcast, bestselling economist Tim Harford introduced us to a selection of fifty radical inventions that changed the world. Now, in this new book, Tim Harford once again brings us an array of remarkable, memorable, curious and often unexpected ‘things’ – inventions that teach us lessons by turns intimate and sweeping about the complex world economy we live in today.
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Macro Briefing | 29 May 2020

House sends China sanctions bill to Trump: CNBC
Civil unrest roils Minneapolis: Reuters
What will Trump announce in today’s press conference today on China? CNBC
US charges two-dozen-plus N. Korean bankers with money laundering: CNN
What happens when the unemployment checks run out? NY Times
US Q1 GDP loss revised down to -5%: CNN
Durable goods orders in US fell sharply for a second month in April: BBG
Pending home sales fell to the lowest level on record in April: BBG
KC Fed Mfg Index continued to decline in May but at slower rate: KCF
US jobless claims continue to surge–up 2.1 million last week: CNBC

Macro Briefing | 28 May 2020

China-India tensions at Himalayan border continue to escalate: Guardian
China votes to impose controversial security law on Hong Kong: CNN
Hong Kong’s role as financial hub at risk of fading: CNBC
Grim milestone: US Covid-19 deaths top 100,000: Politico
US jobless claims set to rise again by 2 million-plus in today’s update: Reuters
Herd immunity for Covid-19 is still nowhere on the near-term horizon: NY Times
Is the Fed considering a yield-curve control policy? Bloomberg
Fed Beige Book: businesses remain wary of economic outlook: MW
Business uncertainty continues to rise in May, reaching sharply elevated level: AF
Richmond Fed Mfg Index continues to show deep contraction in district: RF
Unemployment rates around the world on track for sharp increses in 2020: BBG

Fat Tails Everywhere? Profiling Extreme Returns: Part I

Risk comes in many forms in the money game, but perhaps the first one on every investor’s list is the risk of experiencing extreme losses. This year has been a real-world case study on that front and so it’s timely to revisit the subject of modeling, forecasting and otherwise studying a subject that resonates far and wide for portfolio management, namely: profiling fat tails in return distributions.

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Macro Briefing | 27 May 2020

China’s military says it will protect country’s interest in Hong Kong: NY Times
Trump to announce response to China’s security law for Hong Kong: Reuters
US military accuses Russia of covertly deploying fighter jets to Libya: BBC
US consumer sentiment rebounded modestly in May: CNBC
Senate Leader McConnell: Congress will ‘probably’ another stimulus bill: CNBC
IEA warns that global energy investment is set for record decline: CNBC
US economy is showing signs of rebounding from coronavirus lockdown: WSJ
Home prices in US continued to rise in March despite Covid-19: MW
New US home sales edged up in April: CNBC
US economic downturn accelerated in April: Chicago Fed
Economists expect a slow recovery following US recession: FiveThirtyEight

Macro Briefing | 26 May 2020

Global equity markets rise on optimism for economic reopening: WSJ
China’s military chief in Hong Kong vows to uphold ‘national sovereignty’: CNN
Responding to China’s security law, Taiwan’s president backs Hong Kong: CNBC
Memorial Day weekend crowds raise concern for coronavirus infections: MW
World Health Organization warns of ‘second peak’ for Covid-19: CNBC
WHO suspends Covid-19 testing of malaria drug hydroxychloroquine: Reuters
China preparing for ‘worst case’ economic scenario: SCMP
German consumer sentiment rebounds slightly in May after dramatic decline: Gfk
Daily change in US Covid-19 deaths fell to 2-month low on Monday (May 25): JHU