Daily Archives: May 8, 2020 at 07:41 am EDT

When Will The US Coronavirus Recession Peak?

The US economy is suffering its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and on some fronts the recession is the deepest on record. The obvious question: When will it end? No one knows because the uncertainty is high on how this unprecedented crisis unfolds in the weeks and months ahead. The next-best estimate is looking for a peak in the recession’s intensity and on that front yesterday’s update of the Philadelphia Fed’s ADS Index – a real-time business-cycle index for the US economy – offers a hopeful but still-precarious hint that the apex has passed. [Note: revised data released since this article was published dramatically reversed the upbeat revision history of the ADS Index, as detailed below.]

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Macro Briefing | 8 May 2020

Massive job losses expected in today’s payrolls report for April: Reuters
US and China officials say trade deal still on track: CNBC
Justice Dept drops case against Flynn, Trump’s first nat’s security adviser: AP
Senate fails to override Trump’s veto of a War Powers resolution: CNN
UN: coronavirus could trigger ‘famines of biblical proportions’: USA Today
The ‘sharing economy’ takes a heavy hit from the coronavirus: NY Times
Jobs cuts surged in April to highest on record: CG&C
US jobless claims continue to rise by the millions: MW