Daily Archives: May 12, 2020 at 08:09 am EDT

Managing Economic Recovery Expectations With Payrolls Data

We’re all desperate for a quick economic recovery, but desperation can be the enemy of informed thinking for looking ahead. As an example, consider recent commentary in some corners that a V-shaped economic recovery (a strong, quick bounce-back) for the US is likely because that’s the usual path, based on reviewing the history of gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity. This spin on macro history looks encouraging, but assuming GDP is last word on economic recoveries is assuming too much.

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Macro Briefing | 12 May 2020

Fauci today will warn Senate of risks to early economic opening: NY Times
Biggest US mall owner plans to open 50% of properities by the weekend: CNBC
US auto workers return to jobs amid worries of second virus wave: Reuters
Fed to start buying corporate bond ETFs today: Bloomberg
US consumer inflation expected to fall for second month in today’s update: WSJ
V-shaped recovery unlikely for China, data suggest: WSJ
China’s factory deflation deepened in April: Reuters
S&P 500 volatility (VIX Index) closed at 11-week low yesterday (May 11):