Daily Archives: May 22, 2020 at 07:22 am EDT

Research Review | 22 May 2020 | Tail Risk

The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Mitigate COVID-19, Climate Change, and Other Catastrophic Risks
Bent Flyvbjerg (University of Oxford)
13 May 2020
Regression to the mean is nice and reliable, regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than Covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen so far. What are the basic principles for navigating such risks, for government, business, and the public?
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Macro Briefing | 22 May 2020

US set to withdraw from another nuclear arms treaty: CNN
In threat to Hong Kong’s independence, China signals stricter oversight: BBC
China omits growth target, suggesting challenging economic outlook: WSJ
US-China tensions rise on new front: financial markets: CNBC
Economist predicts 40%-plus of lost jobs in US are gone forever: NY Times
UK retail spending crashed 18% in April–biggest monthly drop on record: FT
US Leading Economic Index continued to fall in April after record drop: CB
US existing home sales fell sharply in April: CNBC
Philly Fed Mfg Index in May still reflects deep sector downturn: MW
US jobless claims continued to surge last week, rising 2.4 million: CNBC
Composite PMI survey data for April points to deep loss for US GDP in Q2: