Monthly Archives: October 2020

Book Bits: 31 October 2020

China’s Trump Card: Cryptocurrency and its Game-Changing Role in Sino-US Trade
Raymond Yeung
Review via South China Morning Post
The US dollar will cease to be the de facto world currency as globalization retreats, so China and the United States should work together to create a globally used cryptocurrency – a strategy that would weaken the dollar, encourage American exports and help balance trade between the two superpowers.
These are the main takeaways from China’s Trump Card: Cryptocurrency and Its Game-Changing Role in Sino-US Trade, by Raymond Yeung, the chief Greater China economist at ANZ Bank. Yeung offers a novel, and somewhat wishful, proposal to one of the world’s most complicated and significant problems – the economic rivalry between the US and China.

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Macro Briefing: 30 Oct 2020

US economy posts dramatic rebound in Q3–GDP rose at record rate: CNBC
Analysts worry that US economic rebound is fading: BBC
Early US voting rises to a record 80 million: Reuters
US coronavirus cases rise above 89,000 a new record: BBG
Europe’s rising coronavirus infections and death are a warning for the US: WSJ
Jobless US workers face potentially massive defaults: Politico
Amazon expects $4 billion in Covid-19-related expenses: CNBC
US pending home sales fell in Sep after four straight monthly gains: Reuters
Big Tech’s profits continue to surge: NYT
US jobless claims continue to fall, dropping to pandemic low: CNBC

The S&P 500’s Latest Slide Vs. Rolling 1-Year Returns

Whenever breathless headlines shout danger and destruction for the stock market, my first reaction is to fire up R to update the perspective on the performance trend. After yesterday’s sharp correction in the S&P 500, which extends the recent downturn and leaves the index at a one-month low, it’s time again for a reality check if only to keep behavioral risk from running amuck.

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Macro Briefing: 29 Oct 2020

Supreme Court OKs ballot extensions In Pennsylvania and North Carolina: NPR
Three dead in terrorism attack in France: CNBC
Europe issues warnings for health care system as coronavirus surges: AP
Big-Tech CEOs debate with Senators in hearing over free-speech issues: WSJ
US states face biggest cash crunch since Great Depression: WSJ
Record gain expected in today’s US GDP report for Q3: Reuters
The ‘nightmare scenario’–a long, contested US election outcome–is a risk: PS
US trade gap in goods narrowed slightly in Sep after record deficit: MW
US equities suffer biggest drop in four months: NYT
As US stocks tumble, VIX volatility index soars to four-month high: BBG

Macro Briefing: 28 Oct 2020

US coronavirus hospitalizations surge: Reuters
Covid-19 cases spike in swing states that will likely decide election: CNBC
Unrest in Philadelphia continues after police fatally shot a black man: BBC
Pre-election voting at 50%-plus of ballots cast in 2016 election: CNN
Germany considers shutting bars and restaurants for one month: BBG
Is the struggling rental market creating the next housing crisis? WSJ
Consumer Confidence Index for US ticks down in October: MW
US consumer confidence falls sharply in swing states in October: Reuters
Annual rise in US home prices in Aug accelerated to 5.7% annual gain: S&P
Mid-Altantic manufacturing activity strengthened in October: MSTAR
US durable goods orders rose 1.9% in Sep–fifth straight monthly gain: MW

Strong Rebound Expected For This Week’s US Q3 GDP Report

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is on track to report that the economy posted a strong rebound in the third quarter in Thursday’s initial GDP estimate (Oct. 29). Most economists and nowcasting models are estimating a dramatic, perhaps record-setting increase in gross domestic product (GDP). There’s still uncertainty about Q4’s outlook, but confidence is high that this week’s GDP data will confirm that the economy mounted a dramatic rebound after Q2’s record loss.

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