Pricing In Election Risk: A contentious debate between President Donald Trump and his opponent, Joe Biden, on Tuesday night unleashed a sea of commentary and concern that an already unusual election year was running off the rails. Just to keep things interesting, late on Thursday news broke that President Trump had tested positive for coronavirus, followed by this afternoon’s announcement from the White House that the commander in chief was being moved to Walter Reed Military Medical Center as a ‘precautionary measure.’

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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked down to an annualized 4.9% in September, slightly below the previous month’s estimate. This estimate is a long-run forecast for performance over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based model (details below).

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President Trump tests positive for coronavirus: Reuters
Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis resets US presidential campaign: BBG
EU may impose sanctions on Turkey over “provocations” with Greece: BBC
Amazon: nearly 20,000 of its workers infected with coronavirus: CNN
US job growth expected to slow in today’s employment report for Sep: WSJ
US consumer spending rose in Aug; income fell sharply: CNBC
Eurozone unemployment rate up for fifth straight month in Aug: MW
Global manufacturing recovery continued in September: IHSM
US manufacturing activity eased in Sep but continues to post solid rise: ISM
US construction spending rose more than expected in Aug: Reuters
US jobless claims drop to pandemic low but remain unusually high: CNBC