Daily Archives: Jan 13, 2021 at 07:33 am EST

Philly Fed’s ADS Business Cycle Index Near A Recession Signal

Is the US economy at risk of a double-dip recession? The threat is rising, according to the latest update of the ADS Index, a real-time tracker of business conditions published by the Philadelphia Fed. This benchmark is a valuable metric for monitoring recession risk, but its attempt to be timely also leaves it vulnerable to noisy volatility. Nonetheless, the latest ADS slide in the current climate bears watching as the pandemic continues to roil America in the new year.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 13 January 2021

* Growing list of Republicans will support today’s vote on impeaching Trump
* Pence rejects effort to oust Trump with 25th amendment
* US to require proof of negative Covid-19 tests for international visitors
* China’s Covid-19 cases rise the most in over five months
* Brazil data shows China coronavirus vaccine is 50.4% effective
* Global shortage of semiconductors squeezes auto production
* US job openings fell less than expected in November but still trending down
* US small business optimism index fell sharply in December: