Daily Archives: Feb 26, 2021 at 06:43 pm EST

Research Review | 26 February 2021 | Inflation

The Increased Toxicity of the U.S. Treasury Security Market
Scott E. Hein (Texas Tech University)
January 2, 2021
This short research paper documents the fact that exclusively watching for rising yields on conventional U.S. Treasury securities to reflect increased inflationary fears in the U.S. is no longer appropriate. With the Federal Reserve seeking to keep short-term nominal yields near zero for an extended period, conventional Treasury yields have not shown the full extent of rising fears of inflation in financial markets. In this monetary environment, the yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) have been more reflective of rising inflation fears. TIPS yields have become increasingly negative in absolute terms during the latter part of 2020. The negative yields on TIPS further suggests that all Treasury investors should be expecting lost purchasing power when they hold onto such securities.

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Macro Briefing: 26 February 2021

* Biden ordered missile strike on Iran-backed militia groups in Syria
* Proposal for federal minimum wage proposal hits roadblock in Senate ruling
* Today’s consumer spending report for January expected to show solid growth
* 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 1.6% on Thursday–highest in over a year
* Inflation will remain contained, predicts Pimco’s chief investment officer
* US GDP growth revised up slightly to 4.1% for Q4
* Durable goods orders for US rose sharply in January — +3.4%
* US economic growth revised up via Philly Fed’s ADS Index
* US jobless claims fell sharply last week but remain unusually high: