Daily Archives: Aug 3, 2021 at 06:54 am EDT

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 August 2021

Correction: Data table below is incorrectly labeled as June 2021; should be July 2021. Apologies

The projected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) held steady in July at an annualized 6.0%, unchanged from the previous month.  That’s a comparatively elevated level vs. estimates in recent history. The forecast reflects the long-run outlook for GMI’s return over the “risk-free” rate, which is proxied with the yield on a 3-month Treasury bill.

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Macro Briefing: 3 August 2021

* Fed faces increasingly uncertain autumn due to Delta variant of coronavirus
* Asia’s economic recovery is increasingly vulnerable to Delta variant
* SEC chairman considers tougher regulations for crypto investing
* Global chip shortage that’s bedeviled car industry expected to continue
* Global Mfg PMI slipped in July but continues to indicate solid growth
* US mfg growth slowed for a second month in July via ISM survey data
* US construction spending edged up in June but trend still moving sideways
* US 10-Year Treasury yield fell to 1.20% on Monday–just above 6-month low: