December 4, 2008
HISTORY ISN'T BUNK, BUT IT CAN BE TRICKY
It may be premature to start planning for a sustained stock market rally, but it's never too early to look for perspective on what's in store for the future.
We've been collecting odds and ends that lend a bit of insight into matters cyclical, including the burning question: When will the bear market end? In terms of declines, the current tumble (as of Nov. 20) is the deepest in the post-World War II era, based on the S&P 500,
Before the latest rally, in late November, the year-to-date loss in 2008 for the S&P at one point exceeded even the 43.3% total return selloff of 1931, according to Morningstar's Ibbotson division. It's anyone's guess if we'll ultimately end up in record negative territory once this year's final trade prints. Yes, there are only 14 trading sessions left to 2008 after today, and as of last night the S&P 500 was off by less than 40% on a total return basis. Painful, to be sure, but a bit better than the year-to-date loss of 47.7% as of November 20's close.
Now for the main event: recovery. Once the rebound begins in earnest, the gains tend to come quick. Alas, the financial gods don't make announcements at the bottom. Only hindsight can definitively spot troughs, leaving mere mortals to guess in real time. Educated guesses, perhaps, but guesses just the same. So it goes with short-term forecasts.
It's tempting to think that reasonable minds can piece together the bits and pieces of evidence to figure out where we are in the cyclical. Indeed, there's a large cottage industry dedicated to just that pursuit. But as a recent essay by the Hussman Funds' Bill Hester reminds, such tasks are tougher than one might expect.
Consider the ebb and flow of S&P 500 operating earnings in relation to the end of bear markets and recessions. "It's best to tune out any forecast for the performance of next year's stock market that is based on expectations for near-term earnings growth," Hester counsels. "There's almost no correlation between year-over-year earnings growth and stock market performance."
The numbers tell the story, Hester continues. Comparing the nine bull markets since 1953, he observes a wide (read: random) array of trends in the changes of S&P 500 operating earnings during the first two years of newly minted bull markets. The quickest and biggest earnings recovery came in the two years following the 2001 recession. "This instance is unique because that bull market began almost 16 months after the recession ended (partly because valuations were still unattractive at the end of the recession)," he notes.
Impressive but hardly typical. Seven of the nine earnings recoveries over the past 50 years were uninspiring in varying degrees. Particularly discouraging was the 20% fall in operating earnings for the S&P 500 even two years after the 1990-91 recession, which was one of the shortest on record.
The point is that earnings have been known to rise (or fall) for many months after a recession's run its course and the stock market's rebound is in full swing. Trying to figure out which scenario Mr. Market has in store this time around is one more reason to remember that investing's still as much art as it is science. Alas, all financial artists aren't equally endowed with talent, which is why there's a case for keeping at least a portion of one's long-term equity exposure in a buy-and-hold pattern over time.
Yes, there's a compelling case for dynamically adjusting one's equity allocation over time, depending on the signals du jour, such as dividend yields. But betting the farm on market timing carries its own set of risks. And as the above stats remind, if you miss the first few months of the rebound, you're likely to miss out on a lot. Caveat emptor.
Posted by jp at December 4, 2008 2:46 PM
One thing for sure, there will be no simple sign AND THE NEWS WILL STILL BE REALLY BAD.
Posted by: XXpel80 at December 5, 2008 12:59 PM
OK, so earnings growth is out – not a reliable indicator for market timing. How about giving some articles backed with research or facts that discuss what drives the markets, is it liquidity - capital availability, apatite for risk and the reasons and their relationships. Money is placed in equities vs. bonds/cash for a reason.......why - more thinking outside the box. I certainly don't understand it but I'm looking for intelligent discussions and supportive analysis to help me understand it.....
Posted by: Asking at December 4, 2008 10:15 PM