September 20, 2012
Q3:2012 U.S. GDP Nowcast | +1.92% | 9.20.12
After today's update of jobless claims, The Capital Spectator's revised nowcast of third-quarter GDP slipped by the smallest of margins to real annualized growth of 1.92%. That's down ever so slightly from the previous 1.93% estimate. Once again, it adds up to effectively no change, which is a clue for thinking that the outlook for sluggish growth rolls on. That said, the current nowcast still represents a small improvement over the 1.7% growth rate for Q2, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The current nowcast incorporates today's update on jobless claims for last week, along with data through yesterday on the three market indicators in our nowcast GDP model: the stock market, oil prices, and the Treasury yield spread for the 10-year Note less the 3-month T-bill. (For a list of the model's 10 factors and a briefing on the methodology, see this post; for a look at the model's in-sample history, click here.)
Here's how the latest nowcast compares with officially reported GDP data in recent history:
And here's the evolution of the Q3:2012 U.S. GDP nowcast since the model's launch earlier this month:
The official Q3:2012 GDP report is scheduled for release on October 26.
Posted by jp at September 20, 2012 11:56 AM