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January 31, 2013
ISM Manufacturing Index: January 2013 Preview
The ISM Manufacturing Index is projected to post a marginal rise to 50.9 in tomorrow's January update , based on The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. That's modestly above the neutral 50 reading and roughly in line with three consensus forecasts.
Here's a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's projections:
VAR-1: A vector autoregression model that analyzes the history of industrial production in context with the ISM Manufacturing Index. The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.
VAR-8: A vector autoregression model that analyzes eight economic time series in context with the ISM Manufacturing Index. The eight additional series: industrial production, private non-farm payrolls, index of weekly hours worked, US stock market (S&P 500), real personal income less current transfer receipts, real personal consumption expenditures, spot oil prices, and the Treasury yield spread (10 year Note less 3-month T-bill). The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.
ARIMA: An autoregressive integrated moving average model that analyzes the historical record of the ISM Manufacturing Index in R via the "forecast" package.
ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of the ISM Manufacturing Index in R via the "forecast" package.
Posted by jp at January 31, 2013 5:20 PM