It was hard to lose money last week as global markets rose across the board for trading through April 16, based on a set of exchange traded funds. Led by foreign and US real estate shares, all the major asset classes advanced over the previous week’s closing prices.
* More than half US adults received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine
* Arms race heating up on Korean peninsula
* Investors focus on inflation concerns as earnings reports roll in
* Can hiring keep up with the accelerating economic rebound?
* China’s central bank calls bitcoin an ‘investment alternative’
* Global consumers stockpile extra $5.4tn of savings during pandemic:
* New housing construction in US reached 15-year high in March
* US Consumer Sentiment Index rises to one-year high in April:
Keeping up with beta, much less beating it, isn’t getting any easier in 2021. That, at least, is the ongoing message in our trio of proprietary portfolio strategies that add various flavors of risk management to a game plan that targets a globally diversified set of assets.
● The Day the Markets Roared: How a 1982 Forecast Sparked a Global Bull Market
Interview with author via Politico
Henry Kaufman, nicknamed Dr. Doom during his 26 years at Salomon Brothers, has a new warning. In his latest book, ‘The Day the Markets Roared: How a 1982 Forecast Sparked a Global Bull Market,’ he argues the influence of central banks has increased to the point that it might present its own risk to the financial system.
‘We’re moving to an environment, which I call statism, in which the federal government and the Federal Reserve dominate the economic and financial system. And that, at times, used to occur in wars. Not in peacetime,’ Kaufman said in an interview.
In this issue:
- Rallies reach across the asset class spectrum this week
- Portfolio strategy benchmarks deliver another week of solid gains
The US economic outlook continues to improve for the upcoming first-quarter estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), based on a set of nowcasts. Compared with Q4’s solid increase, Q1 output is on track to show a substantially stronger gain in the scheduled Apr. 29 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* China GDP surged in Q1 on year-over-year basis
* Pfizer CEO: public will likely need third Covid shot within 12 months
* Japanese prime minister will be first foreign leader to visit Biden’s White House
* Biden bans US banks from buying, underwriting Russian debt sales
* Stagflation is a growing economic threat, predicts economist Nouriel Roubini
* Jobless claims in US fell to new pandemic low last week
* Two regional Fed manufacturing surveys posted stronger growth in April
* US industrial production rebounded in March, led by manufacutring growth
* US retail sales surged in March thanks to stimulus checks:
In a recent post I reviewed how asset allocation is a reliable tool for earning average to above-average returns (with average or below-average risk) for a given opportunity set. Let’s extend the concept with a real-world test of three more market slices: US fixed income, US equity sectors and US equity risk factors.
* US will impose new, deeper sanctions on Russia
* Planned US troop pullout leaves Afghanistan with uncertain future
* 100-plus companies sign letter opposing US state voting restrictions
* Wall St banks report earnings growth and anticipate strong economic recovery
* Hedge funds post best year-to-date results in over a decade
* What happens when US economy’s stimulus high wears off?
* Fed will reduce bond purchases ‘well before’ raising rates, says Powell
* Fed Beige Book: US economic activity accelerated since February
* US 10-year Treasury yield holds steady for 2nd day, near 3-week low:
In this issue:
- Is the bond market rout over?
- Is a renaissance brewing for European equities?