The Kauffman Foundation yesterday published its Fourth Quarter Economics Bloggers Survey. The report summarizes the views of the “top economics bloggers,” a label that generously includes The Capital Spectator, or so the Kaufmann Foundation opines. In any case, the overall view is rather dark, a bit darker than the current outlook on these pages. In fact, the survey’s general tone is the darkest yet, relative to previous responses in this poll. The accompanying press release for the report notes that the “respondents’ outlook on the U.S. economy is more pessimistic than in any previous quarterly survey in 2010, with 99 percent saying that conditions are mixed, facing recession or in recession. When asked about the probability of a double-dip recession in the United States, the average response is a 41 percent probability; two-fifths see a 20 percent probability, and opinion declines toward higher probabilities.”
A few highlights from the survey…
●The majority of bloggers (64%) polled in the survey say the overall economic condition at the moment is “mixed.”
●Looking ahead 3 years, the bloggers overwhelmingly expect global output, inflation, budget deficits and real interest rates, among other variables, to rise.
● 42% of bloggers say there’s a 20% chance of a double-dip recession in the U.S. Slightly more than half of respondents believe the odds are even higher for a new downturn.