ISM Manufacturing Index: December 2013 Preview

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to increase marginally to 57.8 in today’s December update (scheduled for release this morning at 10:00 am New York time), based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The estimate compares with the previously reported 57.3 for November. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection is moderately above a trio of consensus forecasts for December via surveys of economists.

Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:

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VAR-1: A vector autoregression model that analyzes the history of industrial production in context with the ISM Manufacturing Index. The forecasts are run in R with the “vars” package.

VAR-6: A vector autoregression model that analyzes six economic time series in context with the ISM Manufacturing Index. The six additional series: industrial production, private non-farm payrolls, index of weekly hours worked, US stock market (S&P 500), spot oil prices, and the Treasury yield spread (10 year Note less 3-month T-bill). The forecasts are run in R with the “vars” package.

ARIMA: An autoregressive integrated moving average model that analyzes the historical record of the ISM Manufacturing Index in R via the “forecast” package.

ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of the ISM Manufacturing Index in R via the “forecast” package.

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